The ‘Fourth Successor’: Iran’s plan for a long war with the US and Israel | US-Israel war on Iran (www.aljazeera.com)
from hanrahan@slrpnk.net to world@lemmy.world on 10 Mar 07:01
https://slrpnk.net/post/35115232

When Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran had spent two decades studying US wars to build a system that could keep fighting even if the capital was bombed, he was describing more than resilience; he was outlining the logic of Iran’s defence doctrine.

At the centre of that doctrine is what Iranian military thinkers call “decentralised mosaic defence” – a concept built on one core assumption: that in any war with the United States or Israel, Iran may lose senior commanders, key facilities, communications networks and even centralised control, but must still be able to keep fighting.

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tomatolung@lemmy.world on 10 Mar 07:38 collapse

“Mosaic defence” is an Iranian military concept most closely associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), particularly under former commander Mohammad Ali Jafari, who led the force from 2007 to 2019.

The idea is to organise the state’s defensive structure into multiple regional and semi-independent layers instead of concentrating power in a single command chain that could be paralysed by a decapitation strike.

Under this model, the IRGC, the Basij, regular army units, missile forces, naval assets and local command structures form parts of a distributed system. If one part is hit, others keep functioning. If senior leaders are killed, the chain does not collapse. If communications are severed, local units still retain the authority and capacity to act.

The doctrine has two central aims: to make Iran’s command system difficult to dismantle by force, and to make the battlefield itself harder to resolve quickly by turning Iran into a layered arena of regular defence, irregular warfare, local mobilisation and long-term attrition.

That is why Iranian military thinking does not treat war primarily as a contest of firepower. It treats it as a test of endurance.

_Nico198X_@piefed.europe.pub on 10 Mar 08:09 next collapse

Very interesting, thank you!

Thedogdrinkscoffee@lemmy.ca on 10 Mar 08:36 next collapse

This is every non-contender power. Basic doctrine.

rain_enjoyer@sopuli.xyz on 10 Mar 08:59 collapse

if iranian misleers responded to actual situation instead of their imagined apocalypse scenario, iran’s diplomatic position would be much better. planning like this removes lots of flexibility and reeks of hubris. they have probably assumed at time of writing that plan that brits will join americans in bombing campaign, which they didn’t, so striking cyprus is a blunder, because if they didn’t do that, brits wouldn’t send a ship to eastern med, which allowed american carrier to go to red sea. brits now are unlikely to pressure americans against this campaign, as well as french, turks, azeris and all of gulf states because all of them or their assets were bombed

if you only have missiles and fuel that you can carry, then you’re not prepared for a long war. if your TELs are plinked from air one by one because air defense was plinked day before, you’re not prepared for a long war. attrition goes against you if multimillion dollar ballistic missile gets deleted by 40k SDB. extremely charitably this is short term solution meant to make it look like everything works fine. it took ~week for iranians to recover and get new orders, this is not sustainable

it’s not new either. elements of this thinking appear in nuclear war planning as “spasm” response, which is uncoordinated, final response of low level elements in case of top brass removal (it’s all conventional so far of course, nevertheless war like this is probably planned to be existential for iran). apparently first iteration didn’t work, because tenure of that general who introduced it ended in 2019, and 2025 war didn’t include running around like a headless chicken and causing diplomatic incidents left and right. they have burned down so much goodwill for nothing, it’s lowkey impressive