First thing I thought. Even after today, the S&P 500 is down 5% on the month and 10% since Trump took office
Dead_or_Alive@lemmy.world
on 10 Apr 10:48
collapse
This is a dead cat bounce. Nothing fundamentally has changed until Trump is out of office. There is no one talking him down from his bad decision making.
He will move onto the next grift or scandal so he can dominate the next news cycle and make the old one go away. Eventually he will come back to fuck with the economy again.
Rinse & Repeat/Round and round we go until he hits something big he can’t make go away like Covid did in his first term. Then he will loose it.
If you want my bet on what that is, it will be a major war.
War, cold war, or trade war? Maybe a mix, like trade war (since that seems to be sticking around) and a proxy war that the US is using to keep the war supply industry rolling (since he had broken all other industries).
Don't forget plenty of other pandemic potentials, especially since the US officially doesn't recognize any problems anymore like climate or pollution or science.
Dead_or_Alive@lemmy.world
on 10 Apr 15:06
collapse
Cold War wouldn’t dominate the news cycle enough.
Some say we may be in the opening stages of WW3 so I’m imagining full on war or domestic instability/insurrection.
Of course an unchecked pandemic should always be on anyone’s bingo card moving forward as well.
35% Tarriffs on eu/Asia and 104% Tarriffs on China is still a recession. Other countries arent removing their Tarriffs
The only positive thing this did was show that Trump is weak, so hopefully he’ll stay at these rates and maybe he’ll be out by the end of the year
CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org
on 09 Apr 19:15
nextcollapse
For 90 days, if he can resist changing it again that long.
I’m also pretty confused about how Canada and Mexico fit into this, because they said we’re included in the rollback to 10%, but we weren’t in the original “liberation day” tariffs in the first place.
The vibe I get is that most elites really don’t want to believe the president could be dumb, because that means they could be too. Elites own and/or work with a lot of stocks, and that extends to their investing decisions.
So they figure, sure, it must just be a 4D chess bluff.
leisesprecher@feddit.org
on 09 Apr 20:06
nextcollapse
And you really think “the elites” are the ones buying and selling here?
Yes, they have a lot of wealth in stocks, but usually they simply own a large chunk of their (or their parents) company and the rest is managed by a fund manager. And if you have millions or billions, you don’t need to think quarter to quarter.
partial_accumen@lemmy.world
on 09 Apr 20:12
nextcollapse
and the rest is managed by a fund manager.
This is one area I’m ignorant on that I wish I knew more. How are these daytraders or fund managers avoiding capital gains taxes? When they are liquidating a position as they are selling securities, they are trying to preserve prior gains. At best aren’t they getting hit with 15% capital gains taxes on the sale? If so, the fund manager has to believe they will lose more than 15% to justify the transaction right? Again this is best case assuming they’ve held the security for more than a year. Short term capital gains taxes can be as high as 37%!
I understand folks making these vast swinging trades in their IRA or 401k where they are immune to capital gains, but how are fund managers (or regular retail after tax investors) making these wild swings without being eaten alive by taxes?
You are taxed on the gains, not on the total sale volume.
So if I buy something today for $5, and sell it tomorrow for $6, I pay the 37% on the $1 of gain.
So my takeaway is $5.63, not the $3.78 it would be I was taxed on the full sale.
It’s also worth noting that capital losses can offset gains. So if I made $1000 on one trade, but lost $1000 on another, my effective tax is $0, because I didn’t make any money.
This can get squishy though, as there are a lot of accounting loopholes you can do to count things as “losses” that are more losses on paper than actual losses.
partial_accumen@lemmy.world
on 09 Apr 20:35
collapse
You are taxed on the gains, not on the total sale volume.
You’re right, of course, I didn’t write that well. I’m in for the long term and don’t usually think about the smaller gains usually in short term. For me, even just the long term gains are substantial with the 45%-ish increases in value in the last couple of years prior to trump.
It’s also worth noting that capital losses can offset gains. So if I made $1000 on one trade, but lost $1000 on another, my effective tax is $0, because I didn’t make any money.
I knew this part too, but if a hedge fund/daytrader is doing this enough that their capital losses offset their gains, then they would be a pretty worthless hedge fund manager/daytrader, right?
This can get squishy though, as there are a lot of accounting loopholes you can do to count things as “losses” that are more losses on paper than actual losses.
If you’re concerned about that, you might look into index funds. Many are managed to minimize capital gains at a scale that you could never do in personal trading
partial_accumen@lemmy.world
on 11 Apr 19:47
collapse
I’m mostly in total market/S&P500 funds, but even the capital gains from the last 2 years are significant. Again, this was a question more of a position of hedge funds managers and day traders that do lots of short term trading, not long term retail investors like me.
Wealth is a continuum; there’s no actual dividing line, like is commonly thought. But just personally, the posher people I know are less bearish, and it looks like the trend continues once you get even higher. Big fund managers tend to be in the picture. I don’t know off the top of my head how much movement is professionals and how much is retail investors.
I feel the need to disclose that I’m personally short on the US, relative to other markets.
Edit: And I should also mention the myth of meritocracy has a wide following, it’s just extra favoured by the people who would be implied to have merit by it. And there’s the fact that most people came up in a time where this sort of thing never happened, so there’s normalcy bias on top of it all.
Whats_your_reasoning@lemmy.world
on 10 Apr 10:57
nextcollapse
Is anyone else disgusted by the term “elites”? It plays right into the mindset of the wealthy oligarchs, who sincerely believe they’re better than the rest of us.
Such people aren’t “elite,” they’re useless parasites that wouldn’t be able to exist if they weren’t sucking the wealth out of us. It’s time we stop using a term that kisses their asses.
CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org
on 10 Apr 21:54
nextcollapse
Many of us hope against all evidence there is some strategic logic here, some actual plan, some intelligence behind the chaos. I’m still in denial that this could happen in the real world ……it’s just a hallucination about some real estate conman
Yeah, that’s the basic attitude I’m thinking of. Normalcy bias feed into it as well as what I mentioned about meritocracy.
I suspect it’s less common in the lower classes because if you’re poor, stability has never been guaranteed, or for that matter even reasonability. There’s no expectation that’s been set. Depending on a person’s roots there might also be cultural memory in there of previous times things went crazy.
Dead_or_Alive@lemmy.world
on 09 Apr 20:40
nextcollapse
I agree this is just market euphoria. We have a lot of systemic issues that have been exacerbated and/or entirely created by Trump.
The core problem is Trump full stop. He is sitting in the White House with nothing but “Yes” men in his cabinet. It’s only a mater of time until he releases his next scheme on the market.
He’s been obsessed with tariffs all his life, he won’t stop doing those
Dead_or_Alive@lemmy.world
on 10 Apr 10:38
collapse
No he won’t give tariffs up. This was his latest gift to make 10% tariffs on everything seem not so bad. I’m willing to bet 10% was always his goal and the crazy numbers he threw out were there to make 10% seem reasonable.
The problem is after 4 months of attacking allies, siding with dictators, reneging on prior trade agreements he negotiated, and being called out for it globally. This latest economic grift wiped any trust the US had left.
The US is uninvestable while he is in power. You can’t make major investments be it a billion dollar factory complex or some small business importing goods to build a product. You could be wiped out because of a mood swing or Orange Mussolini’s latest grift.
Worse his tariffs put many US manufacturers at a disadvantage compared to foreign competitors. He’s just set the stage for a definite recession, long term slow economic growth or at worse a depression if the bond market fully breaks down.
Even if he can get tax cuts passed they won’t do shit to put it all back together.
It’s still possible that’s the point. Not the tariffs as a goal but as a weapon to hold over everyone’s head, to shake them down until they all bow before mango mussolini
omgitsaheadcrab@sh.itjust.works
on 09 Apr 19:55
nextcollapse
Isn’t the 10% still active? This is the oldest negotiation strategy in the book…
Tempus_Fugit@midwest.social
on 09 Apr 19:55
nextcollapse
Oh boy all this uncertainty is surely good for their precious economy.
NocturnalMorning@lemmy.world
on 09 Apr 20:03
nextcollapse
Are we sure this wasn’t a pump and dumb scheme by the administration?
deadbeef79000@lemmy.nz
on 09 Apr 20:25
nextcollapse
Trump literally said “it’s a great time to buy”.
So, yes, it is definitely a pump and dump, but it’s not only a pump and dump.
TommySoda@lemmy.world
on 09 Apr 20:26
nextcollapse
“Soar” is a strong word when you consider they were higher less than a week ago. Can’t wait for the next thing he says to drop the market before the weekend so his boys can get in on the next pump and dump. He literally tweeted “NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO BUY” right before he paused the tariffs.
Speaking from experience in Canada, the 90 days is meaningless. Welcome to the dance of constant tariff threats every two weeks only to backpedal when the market crashes.
He does not have the attention span to wait 9 days let alone 90. This man is a toddler with a flamethrower having a tantrum.
barneypiccolo@lemm.ee
on 10 Apr 01:29
nextcollapse
Have we forgotten that he has done this each month since he was Inaugurated?
He crashes the the stock market with talk of tariffs. The wealthy buys options on the decline, and buy on this massive dip, and in a few days, HitlerPig announces that the countries on his list have responded to his tariff threats, so he is postponing them for a month or so.
The stock market recovers a bit, and the wealthy will make fortune. In a month, he’ll do it all over again. This was thebthird cycle since Inauguration.
It I not illegal Market Manipulation if the president does it
SpiceDealer@lemmy.dbzer0.com
on 10 Apr 01:53
nextcollapse
From the article:
The commerce secretary added on X that he and Treasury secretary Scott Bessent “sat with the President while he wrote one of the most extraordinary Truth posts of his Presidency”
Next time I’m feeling down, I’ll just remember that someone felt the need to post on Xitter that he helped Trump write down his best posts on some shit social.
The normalisation of that insane shit is something the mass media has to bear a large portion of the responsibility for.
ThraawnSolo@lemmy.dbzer0.com
on 10 Apr 09:31
nextcollapse
90 days to save up your hard earned money so you can buy the dip again…and again…and again. This is what the old shit stain is doing.
Pyr_Pressure@lemmy.ca
on 10 Apr 13:10
nextcollapse
Are investors idiots? He’s just going to change his mind again in three days
houseofleft@slrpnk.net
on 11 Apr 05:21
nextcollapse
Tbf, all these headlines miss that indexes like the S&P 500 are still far down from pre-tariff-mania. Investors are more or less updating their views for how screwed the markets are, rather than betting that everything is fine.
UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world
on 11 Apr 18:48
collapse
Are investors idiots?
A lot of investment is driven entirely by HFT algorithms and AIs now. The brokers oversee the broad strategy, but the trading is just a dozen different multi-billionaire hedge funds chasing one another’s tails. Market buy-ups and sell-offs are triggered by a handful of headlines and aggregator engines, snowballing up or down based on computers responding to other computers.
And because the market is increasingly liquid - as more mega-investors like Buffet cash out in pursuit of future buying opportunities - you’ll see sudden sharp inversions caused by the sheer amount of buying power that’s being pent up and released between announcements.
He’s just going to change his mind again in three days
Very difficult to price that as a risk variable. And in the meantime, there’s a ton of money to be made speculating on which way his wind will blow next.
sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.com
on 11 Apr 00:50
nextcollapse
… Meanwhile, the bond markets are continuing to freak the fuck out, and the yield curve has now inverted and univerted three times before an actual ‘official’ recession has begun.
For those that don’t know, a yield curve inversion is when short term bonds offer a higher yield (interest rate) than long term bonds.
That… it not how that is supposed to work.
Generally speaking, a longer term bond should be riskier due to the amount of things that can possibly go wrong in that longer amount of time, as compared to a shorter term bond that pays itself back in less time, with less time for unforseen nonsense to happen.
Every single US official recession in the last … 50, 100 years? has occured after first, the yield curve inverts, then it uninverts, and then an ‘official’ recession follows quite rapidly.
…Except fucking now.
Now we are in a situation where the yield curve has inverted then uninverted three fucking times without an ‘official’ recession actually starting.
This is unprecedented.
As of right now, the 6 month T Bill and the 5 year T Bond have roughly the same yield, and everything in between has a lower yield, the lowest point being the 2 yr.
… Its supposed to be basically a line going upward on the y axis of yields, as you move rightward on the x axis from shorter to longer term debt/bonds.
The bond market right now is more or less saying we are gonna be in for 2 years minimum of economic decline.
Trump’s gonna default on the bonds and the debt to try to reset everything. Ya’ll are fucked.
sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.com
on 11 Apr 12:46
nextcollapse
… yeah.
Shits gonna get real bad.
Like Great Depression 2.0 bad, but this time shanty towns are all classed as illegal homeless encampments and Trump has publicly stated multiple times his plan for the homeless is literally concentration camps in the middle of nowhere or outskirts of cities, that kind of bad.
The casino model of doing business except in this case the “license to print money” is literal. No one can screw it up, right? Nah, let’s declare bankrupt and stiff all our creditors, and our debt will be taken care of. Smart. Business. Move
UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world
on 11 Apr 18:44
collapse
in this case the “license to print money” is literal. No one can screw it up, right?
Ask Robert Mugabe
Ironfist79@lemmy.world
on 11 Apr 11:37
nextcollapse
I’m getting really tired of the media misrepresenting reality. Stocks are still down compared to a year ago.
AFAIK all of the 10% tariffs are currently in effect, as well as the 140% China tariffs, except for types of goods, and also the upward bump was 2 days ago when this post was made.
finitebanjo@lemmy.world
on 11 Apr 14:07
nextcollapse
The four major indexes are still down 5 to 30% from yoy average rn.
TronBronson@lemmy.world
on 11 Apr 14:31
nextcollapse
Here’s a headline. Donald trump orchastrates a stock market crash. Uses his social media company to signal the buy, and release the tariff news. Insiders and truth social followers get rich as markets pump 10% immediately after tweet is released.
threaded - newest
Penguins 1 - USA 0
I guess y’all think 90 days is enough time for China to back down and for all of your manufacturing and supply chain to spin up?
He could change his mind on a fart tomorrow.
Farce.
Can’t wait to see the demands for DEI removal from sovereign nations to avoid tariffs. Or more energy blackmail.
🖕
I wouldn’t be surprised if the US moron brigade demands from African nations that they shouldn’t hire black people anymore.
Africa can do itself a favor by expelling all the American Christians that were there writing some of the laws for some of the countries.
China is exempted from the deferral. Theirs will continue to be taxed.
"Soar"
Looks back a month to compare
Falling without style?
First thing I thought. Even after today, the S&P 500 is down 5% on the month and 10% since Trump took office
This is a dead cat bounce. Nothing fundamentally has changed until Trump is out of office. There is no one talking him down from his bad decision making.
He will move onto the next grift or scandal so he can dominate the next news cycle and make the old one go away. Eventually he will come back to fuck with the economy again.
Rinse & Repeat/Round and round we go until he hits something big he can’t make go away like Covid did in his first term. Then he will loose it.
If you want my bet on what that is, it will be a major war.
War, cold war, or trade war? Maybe a mix, like trade war (since that seems to be sticking around) and a proxy war that the US is using to keep the war supply industry rolling (since he had broken all other industries).
Don't forget plenty of other pandemic potentials, especially since the US officially doesn't recognize any problems anymore like climate or pollution or science.
Cold War wouldn’t dominate the news cycle enough.
Some say we may be in the opening stages of WW3 so I’m imagining full on war or domestic instability/insurrection.
Of course an unchecked pandemic should always be on anyone’s bingo card moving forward as well.
This is his life’s work. Way before the presidency.
35% Tarriffs on eu/Asia and 104% Tarriffs on China is still a recession. Other countries arent removing their Tarriffs
The only positive thing this did was show that Trump is weak, so hopefully he’ll stay at these rates and maybe he’ll be out by the end of the year
For 90 days, if he can resist changing it again that long.
I’m also pretty confused about how Canada and Mexico fit into this, because they said we’re included in the rollback to 10%, but we weren’t in the original “liberation day” tariffs in the first place.
Thos whole thing is so fucking stupid.
Like the majority of muricans
as a 'merican… i feel that
but also I’m Lakota and I’m fucking laughing
Is there anything that Trump can’t do?
Lots. Math, logic, leading a nation, golf, speak, charm, stay on the good side of the law, make friends…can’t be bothered to continue…
Make rational decisions relating to trade.
Hold his bowels every time he flys into a rage, it’s a known fact
The market reaction is dumb. 90 days bus very little for companies to adapt when years are needed.
I think this but it’s just the people seeing his tweet immediately before he lifted the restrictions.
Looks like we are still heading for recession and Treasury bills interest is still jumping up.
One part is a reverse game of chicken, buy the dippest dip to realize most profit from less dippy dip buyers.
The other part is the assumption that this means the tariffs will never actually come or at least in a much relaxed form.
The vibe I get is that most elites really don’t want to believe the president could be dumb, because that means they could be too. Elites own and/or work with a lot of stocks, and that extends to their investing decisions.
So they figure, sure, it must just be a 4D chess bluff.
And you really think “the elites” are the ones buying and selling here?
Yes, they have a lot of wealth in stocks, but usually they simply own a large chunk of their (or their parents) company and the rest is managed by a fund manager. And if you have millions or billions, you don’t need to think quarter to quarter.
This is one area I’m ignorant on that I wish I knew more. How are these daytraders or fund managers avoiding capital gains taxes? When they are liquidating a position as they are selling securities, they are trying to preserve prior gains. At best aren’t they getting hit with 15% capital gains taxes on the sale? If so, the fund manager has to believe they will lose more than 15% to justify the transaction right? Again this is best case assuming they’ve held the security for more than a year. Short term capital gains taxes can be as high as 37%!
I understand folks making these vast swinging trades in their IRA or 401k where they are immune to capital gains, but how are fund managers (or regular retail after tax investors) making these wild swings without being eaten alive by taxes?
You are taxed on the gains, not on the total sale volume.
So if I buy something today for $5, and sell it tomorrow for $6, I pay the 37% on the $1 of gain.
So my takeaway is $5.63, not the $3.78 it would be I was taxed on the full sale.
It’s also worth noting that capital losses can offset gains. So if I made $1000 on one trade, but lost $1000 on another, my effective tax is $0, because I didn’t make any money.
This can get squishy though, as there are a lot of accounting loopholes you can do to count things as “losses” that are more losses on paper than actual losses.
You’re right, of course, I didn’t write that well. I’m in for the long term and don’t usually think about the smaller gains usually in short term. For me, even just the long term gains are substantial with the 45%-ish increases in value in the last couple of years prior to trump.
I knew this part too, but if a hedge fund/daytrader is doing this enough that their capital losses offset their gains, then they would be a pretty worthless hedge fund manager/daytrader, right?
This is the part I’m ignorant about, I think.
If you’re concerned about that, you might look into index funds. Many are managed to minimize capital gains at a scale that you could never do in personal trading
I’m mostly in total market/S&P500 funds, but even the capital gains from the last 2 years are significant. Again, this was a question more of a position of hedge funds managers and day traders that do lots of short term trading, not long term retail investors like me.
Wealth is a continuum; there’s no actual dividing line, like is commonly thought. But just personally, the posher people I know are less bearish, and it looks like the trend continues once you get even higher. Big fund managers tend to be in the picture. I don’t know off the top of my head how much movement is professionals and how much is retail investors.
I feel the need to disclose that I’m personally short on the US, relative to other markets.
Edit: And I should also mention the myth of meritocracy has a wide following, it’s just extra favoured by the people who would be implied to have merit by it. And there’s the fact that most people came up in a time where this sort of thing never happened, so there’s normalcy bias on top of it all.
Is anyone else disgusted by the term “elites”? It plays right into the mindset of the wealthy oligarchs, who sincerely believe they’re better than the rest of us.
Such people aren’t “elite,” they’re useless parasites that wouldn’t be able to exist if they weren’t sucking the wealth out of us. It’s time we stop using a term that kisses their asses.
Nobody likes being called an elite, don’t worry.
I’ve started referring to them as the “Problem Class”
Many of us hope against all evidence there is some strategic logic here, some actual plan, some intelligence behind the chaos. I’m still in denial that this could happen in the real world ……it’s just a hallucination about some real estate conman
Yeah, that’s the basic attitude I’m thinking of. Normalcy bias feed into it as well as what I mentioned about meritocracy.
I suspect it’s less common in the lower classes because if you’re poor, stability has never been guaranteed, or for that matter even reasonability. There’s no expectation that’s been set. Depending on a person’s roots there might also be cultural memory in there of previous times things went crazy.
I agree this is just market euphoria. We have a lot of systemic issues that have been exacerbated and/or entirely created by Trump.
The core problem is Trump full stop. He is sitting in the White House with nothing but “Yes” men in his cabinet. It’s only a mater of time until he releases his next scheme on the market.
He’s been obsessed with tariffs all his life, he won’t stop doing those
No he won’t give tariffs up. This was his latest gift to make 10% tariffs on everything seem not so bad. I’m willing to bet 10% was always his goal and the crazy numbers he threw out were there to make 10% seem reasonable.
The problem is after 4 months of attacking allies, siding with dictators, reneging on prior trade agreements he negotiated, and being called out for it globally. This latest economic grift wiped any trust the US had left.
The US is uninvestable while he is in power. You can’t make major investments be it a billion dollar factory complex or some small business importing goods to build a product. You could be wiped out because of a mood swing or Orange Mussolini’s latest grift.
Worse his tariffs put many US manufacturers at a disadvantage compared to foreign competitors. He’s just set the stage for a definite recession, long term slow economic growth or at worse a depression if the bond market fully breaks down.
Even if he can get tax cuts passed they won’t do shit to put it all back together.
Market doesn’t know if the tariffs are even coming back, and are taking the chance to buy back low.
He suspended it for 90 days and also previously threatened that there will be more, so we don’t even know if next week there won’t be new tariffs.
It’s still possible that’s the point. Not the tariffs as a goal but as a weapon to hold over everyone’s head, to shake them down until they all bow before mango mussolini
Isn’t the 10% still active? This is the oldest negotiation strategy in the book…
Oh boy all this uncertainty is surely good for their precious economy.
Are we sure this wasn’t a pump and dumb scheme by the administration?
Trump literally said “it’s a great time to buy”.
So, yes, it is definitely a pump and dump, but it’s not only a pump and dump.
Definitely “pump and dump”, but is it market manipulation to enrich his corporate benefactors or market manipulation to say “I’m winning”
It is a dump scheme. Only
Perfect typo… I think
Yeah, i didn’t even notice =D
This is kind of funny tbh
“Soar” is a strong word when you consider they were higher less than a week ago. Can’t wait for the next thing he says to drop the market before the weekend so his boys can get in on the next pump and dump. He literally tweeted “NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO BUY” right before he paused the tariffs.
It’s the only word journalist know to describe something that isn’t plummeting.
Backs down for a few days Also I’m mad that Tesla is up at 272 now from 221 earlier this morning
As if anyone is going to start buying Elon’s crap cars again just because Trump suspends some tariffs.
Speaking from experience in Canada, the 90 days is meaningless. Welcome to the dance of constant tariff threats every two weeks only to backpedal when the market crashes.
He does not have the attention span to wait 9 days let alone 90. This man is a toddler with a flamethrower having a tantrum.
More like one flamethrower in each hand.
That’s why the orange toupee said that they were wining millions a day… buy the dip, sell the rip
Not specifically directed at OP, but I am sick of those truncated graphs.
Also, fuck Trump. Not in a goof way.
Dead cat bounce is a real thing. At best its just increased volatility, which is not good.
Yup, reverse pump and dump. Knew he was gonna fold his pussy flaps
On his neck
Have we forgotten that he has done this each month since he was Inaugurated?
He crashes the the stock market with talk of tariffs. The wealthy buys options on the decline, and buy on this massive dip, and in a few days, HitlerPig announces that the countries on his list have responded to his tariff threats, so he is postponing them for a month or so.
The stock market recovers a bit, and the wealthy will make fortune. In a month, he’ll do it all over again. This was thebthird cycle since Inauguration.
It’s deliberate market manipulation.
It I not
illegalMarket Manipulation if the president does itFrom the article:
Next time I’m feeling down, I’ll just remember that someone felt the need to post on Xitter that he helped Trump write down his best posts on some shit social.
The normalisation of that insane shit is something the mass media has to bear a large portion of the responsibility for.
90 days to save up your hard earned money so you can buy the dip again…and again…and again. This is what the old shit stain is doing.
Are investors idiots? He’s just going to change his mind again in three days
Tbf, all these headlines miss that indexes like the S&P 500 are still far down from pre-tariff-mania. Investors are more or less updating their views for how screwed the markets are, rather than betting that everything is fine.
A lot of investment is driven entirely by HFT algorithms and AIs now. The brokers oversee the broad strategy, but the trading is just a dozen different multi-billionaire hedge funds chasing one another’s tails. Market buy-ups and sell-offs are triggered by a handful of headlines and aggregator engines, snowballing up or down based on computers responding to other computers.
And because the market is increasingly liquid - as more mega-investors like Buffet cash out in pursuit of future buying opportunities - you’ll see sudden sharp inversions caused by the sheer amount of buying power that’s being pent up and released between announcements.
Very difficult to price that as a risk variable. And in the meantime, there’s a ton of money to be made speculating on which way his wind will blow next.
… Meanwhile, the bond markets are continuing to freak the fuck out, and the yield curve has now inverted and univerted three times before an actual ‘official’ recession has begun.
For those that don’t know, a yield curve inversion is when short term bonds offer a higher yield (interest rate) than long term bonds.
That… it not how that is supposed to work.
Generally speaking, a longer term bond should be riskier due to the amount of things that can possibly go wrong in that longer amount of time, as compared to a shorter term bond that pays itself back in less time, with less time for unforseen nonsense to happen.
Every single US official recession in the last … 50, 100 years? has occured after first, the yield curve inverts, then it uninverts, and then an ‘official’ recession follows quite rapidly.
…Except fucking now.
Now we are in a situation where the yield curve has inverted then uninverted three fucking times without an ‘official’ recession actually starting.
This is unprecedented.
As of right now, the 6 month T Bill and the 5 year T Bond have roughly the same yield, and everything in between has a lower yield, the lowest point being the 2 yr.
… Its supposed to be basically a line going upward on the y axis of yields, as you move rightward on the x axis from shorter to longer term debt/bonds.
The bond market right now is more or less saying we are gonna be in for 2 years minimum of economic decline.
Trump’s gonna default on the bonds and the debt to try to reset everything. Ya’ll are fucked.
… yeah.
Shits gonna get real bad.
Like Great Depression 2.0 bad, but this time shanty towns are all classed as illegal homeless encampments and Trump has publicly stated multiple times his plan for the homeless is literally concentration camps in the middle of nowhere or outskirts of cities, that kind of bad.
The casino model of doing business except in this case the “license to print money” is literal. No one can screw it up, right? Nah, let’s declare bankrupt and stiff all our creditors, and our debt will be taken care of. Smart. Business. Move
Ask Robert Mugabe
I’m getting really tired of the media misrepresenting reality. Stocks are still down compared to a year ago.
Still down compared to a month ago, but the post was a few days ago where there was one short upward trend for like a couple hours.
The China tariffs went into effect right?
AFAIK all of the 10% tariffs are currently in effect, as well as the 140% China tariffs, except for types of goods, and also the upward bump was 2 days ago when this post was made.
The four major indexes are still down 5 to 30% from yoy average rn.
Here’s a headline. Donald trump orchastrates a stock market crash. Uses his social media company to signal the buy, and release the tariff news. Insiders and truth social followers get rich as markets pump 10% immediately after tweet is released.
4D chess all along! I knew he was a secret genius. Libs were triggered for no reason! It was all part of the plan.
All the way up to 40,157 from the Biden-Era dull-drums of 44,850