Frontline report: 50% of Moscow’s fuel supply at risk after Ukrainian drone strike on its largest oil refinery (euromaidanpress.com)
from MicroWave@lemmy.world to world@lemmy.world on 16 Mar 2025 20:22
https://lemmy.world/post/26941324

Summary

A massive Ukrainian drone strike targeted Russian oil refineries and infrastructure, including Moscow’s largest refinery, which supplies 50% of the city’s fuel.

The attack also hit the Druzhba pipeline control station, halting Russian oil exports to Hungary. With over 337 drones striking multiple regions, the operation exploited gaps in Russia’s air defenses.

Hungary, heavily reliant on Russian energy, called the pipeline attack a threat to its sovereignty.

Analysts suggest continued strikes could pressure Russia’s economy and energy dominance, potentially influencing ceasefire negotiations.

#world

threaded - newest

Zerlyna@lemmy.world on 16 Mar 2025 20:29 next collapse

Oh no. Darn. /s 🇺🇦

casmael@lemm.ee on 17 Mar 2025 01:07 collapse

Oh no! Anyway……… 🚙

NocturnalMorning@lemmy.world on 16 Mar 2025 21:06 next collapse

Oh no… anyways.

RamblingPanda@lemmynsfw.com on 16 Mar 2025 21:21 next collapse

www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcua9XzKVas

breen@lemmy.ca on 16 Mar 2025 21:26 next collapse

Awesome!

thisphuckinguy@lemmy.world on 16 Mar 2025 21:43 next collapse

Keep going Ukraine

rc__buggy@sh.itjust.works on 16 Mar 2025 21:49 next collapse

And Zelensky just announced they have flown a 1000km range missile this week. Kremlin is big mad.

Fingolfinz@lemmy.world on 16 Mar 2025 22:04 next collapse

Hell yeah

einkorn@feddit.org on 16 Mar 2025 22:28 next collapse

I think given the current state of the Russian military, implementing Red Storm Rising is off the table.

InvertedParallax@lemm.ee on 17 Mar 2025 06:58 collapse

I mean, that’s literally what this invasion was supposed to be, and failed before they even left the old ussr.

Aceticon@lemmy.dbzer0.com on 17 Mar 2025 15:37 collapse

It was supposed to be Russian dominance “from Vladivostok to Lisbon” as Putin’s grand political philosopher put it and various Russian Politicians very publicly stated, and here we are 2 years after the “3 day Special Military Operation started” and Russia is still stuck in Donbas with almost 1 million casualties, their massive stocks of Soviet Unions weapons severely depleted and their enemy has developed their own advanced weapons and is increasingly destroying the Oil and Gas infrastructure they rely on to pay for the War and dominating the airspace near the front lines using drones.

Putin’s Russia is like the obese guy who loudly claims “I’m in perfect shape”, goes out “to run a marathon” and after about about 500m is already totally out of breath and barely moving.

InvertedParallax@lemm.ee on 17 Mar 2025 17:33 next collapse

This whole thing proved Russia’s hard power was the emperor who had no clothes.

Otoh, the last decade has also proven their soft power is basically a world beater.

And their soft power is as great as it is because they know how to appeal to the absolute worst vile filth in every society, from their centuries of experience managing Russian culture.

stickly@lemmy.world on 18 Mar 2025 19:23 collapse

I think soft power only goes do far once you start achieving your goals. Propaganda got Trump elected twice, but now that the rest of the world sees him driving America off the cliff to toe Putin’s line other countries are being hardened.

Its kind of like an immune response: look at the whiplash in conservative polling numbers in Canada or the mounting regulation/push back on captured social media platforms.

InvertedParallax@lemm.ee on 18 Mar 2025 23:41 collapse

No, I thought that way too, then I realized how many people there are waiting for the Russian message.

I think people who consider themselves unheard for so long are waking up, much like they did before the American Civil War and Ww2, and the same struggle begins, trying to reason with people who cannot be reasoned with, because they already know their answer in their angry hearts.

Valmond@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 21:54 next collapse

* 3 years

ivanafterall@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 23:42 collapse

And then buys one of those marathon bumper stickers and tells everybody he won.

A_A@lemmy.world on 16 Mar 2025 22:32 next collapse

that’s the only language russia understands

Buffalox@lemmy.world on 16 Mar 2025 22:36 next collapse

Waiting for Putin to claim Ukraine is crossing the line doing this. While he is perfectly OK with bombing Ukrainian Nuclear power plants and dams. Things that are actually clearly war crimes.

It’s so cool that Ukraine has found a way to strike back, and they do it within international law!!

Fuck you Russia and fuck you Putin.
Your days are numbered!

Agent641@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 03:30 next collapse

So many of Moscow’s ‘Red Lines’ have been crossed it’s starting to look like a red carpet.

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 17 Mar 2025 05:01 collapse

Russia’s days are not numbered.

exu@feditown.com on 17 Mar 2025 06:11 next collapse

Every day is numbered, it’s called a calendar.

InvertedParallax@lemm.ee on 17 Mar 2025 06:57 next collapse

They had 4 revolutions in the 1900s.

They’re slightly overdue for another humiliating collapse.

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 17 Mar 2025 13:54 collapse

Ok then everybody’s days are numbered…

Szyler@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 15:36 collapse

You are accidentally correct! The best kind of corr… Wait a minute!

whodrankarnoldpalmer@startrek.website on 17 Mar 2025 07:14 next collapse

Not with that attitude

Cethin@lemmy.zip on 17 Mar 2025 18:28 next collapse

Why do you think they aren’t? It’s not like revolution is unheard of there. Do you have any real reason, or just faith. I don’t really think believing in things makes it true, or the world would be a much different place.

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 17 Mar 2025 18:30 collapse

Because the revolution is not likely to happen anytime soon. Of course, I can be wrong.

Cethin@lemmy.zip on 17 Mar 2025 20:18 next collapse

Why do you think that? Again, belief is useless. Do you have actual reasoning?

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 17 Mar 2025 20:43 collapse

Why do you believe it’s happening? Are you willing to bet the revolution will happen before the end of the year?

Cethin@lemmy.zip on 17 Mar 2025 22:56 collapse

I don’t think I stated an opinion. You did. Do you actually have a reason for what you said?

For future reference, I think it’s quite possible Russia sees a revolution or regime change. They’re losing a large portion of their young male population, their economy is in turmoil, and their oil refineries, which is by far their most important export, are being destroyed. They saved up money for a while before the war to pay families who lose soldiers and temporarily keep their economy afloat and keep people from getting too riled up, but that money is largely gone now. Payments to families are being delayed or not happening at all, and the economy is in a risky position.

Will it happen? I don’t think anyone can make this prediction. May it happen? Certainly. I don’t think any reasonable person looks at the situation and thinks it’s on stable ground. Only the people with their heads in the sand can sit back and say Russia is in a great position internally or externally right now. Sure, Russian media says it’s great, but they benefit from selling that image to the people. Don’t wholy trust anyone who benefits from you believing what they’re saying.

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 18 Mar 2025 01:38 collapse

Sure, I’m not saying it can’t happen, I’m saying it’s not likely to happen in the near term. If you are confident it will happen by a given date in the near future, let’s bet.

There have been indeed damages to Russian energy facilities but enough remain functional to keep the economy going. The irony is European countries have contributed nearly as much to the Russian war efforts as they have towards the Ukrainian war efforts over the past three years.

Cethin@lemmy.zip on 18 Mar 2025 07:21 collapse

Why do you think that? You haven’t given a reason.

You asking to make a bet is just a stupid way to act like you’re the one with power. We both know this is an internet forum where we’re never going to pay the other no matter who wins. Stop behaving like a child. I know how this works.

I case you forgot by the time you read this, there’s a question at the top of this comment.

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 18 Mar 2025 13:01 collapse

Because there’s no reason for it to happen anytime soon.

This has nothing to do with power, it is about putting money where your mouth is, which shouldn’t be a problem if you are confident in what you’re saying. I would pay up if I lost the bet, are you saying you wouldn’t pay up if you lost a bet?

[deleted] on 18 Mar 2025 13:15 next collapse
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Cethin@lemmy.zip on 18 Mar 2025 18:17 collapse

There’s plenty of reasons it would happen soon. I listed them above.

I’m not giving you, or anyone else, information linking to my person, so no I wouldn’t pay. I wouldn’t make a bet.

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 18 Mar 2025 18:32 collapse

Your reasons are just your opinion. One can look at most countries and come up with opinions why there might possibly eventually maybe be a regime change sometime in the undefined future.

Russia has finished retaking Kursk today, they are not in a bad situation.

In case you are not aware, there are ways to bet without the need to exchange any information linking to each other.

Cethin@lemmy.zip on 19 Mar 2025 17:56 collapse

They are not opinions. They are facts. Whether they lead to something, who knows. The fact they’re real is not in question by anyone reasonable. Whether you like it is an opinion.

Russia is in a really bad situation. Then retaking Kursk doesn’t mean anything. It doesn’t change that the Ruble is in a pretty serious downward trend, although this is being temporarily protected against by the government but it’ll hit harder when they can’t anymore. Their payments to soldiers families are being held back as much as possible, which is a major factor for keeping people complacent and also boosting their economy. They’ve lost more soldiers than the UK did in WWII. Also, they’re losing ground near Pokrovsk, which is actually strategically important. Kursk was not, except to hurt Russia’s ego because they lie about everything, but can’t really lie about that. It doesn’t cut off any supply routes (for either side) and the one thing it did have is an oil distribution pipeline, which probably doesn’t function now and you don’t need people there to damage that.

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 19 Mar 2025 18:20 collapse

Well, I guess the future will let us know soon enough if you’re right.

drhodl@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 21:42 collapse

It’s the only thing ruzzian peons do well :)

Retropunk64@lemm.ee on 17 Mar 2025 20:46 next collapse

They said Putin, not Russia.

Valmond@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 21:53 collapse

He’s just a russian .ml troll, nothing can change his mind

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 17 Mar 2025 20:49 next collapse

In that statement “Your” can refer to either or both.

drhodl@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 22:44 collapse

Only if you are a ruzzian orc with rudimentary understanding of the English language. At least you tried, hey Yuri? :)

drhodl@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 21:41 collapse

Ruzzia will be a third world shithole country forever. Everyone outside of Moscow and St Petersburg squats over latrine pits, your food is the worst in the world, your men are all addicted to anti-freeze vodka and smoking, which explains why the greatest cause of death in ruzzia is self immolation. Even your women hate you because they are all trying to marry westerners. When you finish losing this war, you will never get your overseas assets back, or your petroleum customers, and you will be paying reparations forever. Pootangs legacy is that you will remain peasants forever. Well deserved, I say :)

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 18 Mar 2025 01:25 collapse

You can stop using “your”, I’m not Russian lol.

drhodl@lemmy.world on 18 Mar 2025 03:09 collapse

Yes you are. You are regurgitating Pootangs talking points which makes you a ruzzian orc. or even worse, a traitorous collaborator. I’m choosing to be generous naming you an orc, Yuri.

takeda@lemm.ee on 16 Mar 2025 22:47 next collapse

Hungary, heavily reliant on Russian energy, called the pipeline attack a threat to its sovereignty.

You had fucking 3 years to look for alternatives.

svc@lemmy.frozeninferno.xyz on 16 Mar 2025 23:39 next collapse

These strikes help Hungary become more sovereign.

realitista@lemm.ee on 17 Mar 2025 04:22 next collapse

The biggest obstacle to Hungarian sovereignty is Victor Orban.

Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz on 17 Mar 2025 21:05 collapse

I don’t think a refinery strike in the Russia has any effect on Hungary. Except by weakening Hungary’s ally.

This strike has no effect on availability of crude oil in the Russia or elsewhere, but it does have an effect on availability of refined oil products within a certain, rather large, radius around the refinery.

OsrsNeedsF2P@lemmy.ml on 18 Mar 2025 07:35 collapse

It has a huge effect on Hungary. The very pipeline that Hungary used to buy gas is currently non-operational, and gas makes up the majority of Hungary’s power generation.

The Hungarian president is pissed about the attack. He’s already denounced it and said it threatens Hungarian sovereignity.

Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz on 18 Mar 2025 10:31 collapse

It is non-operational, but not because of this strike to a refinery. These are two wholly separate attacks.

OP is about an air strike to a refinery.

Bartsbigbugbag@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 18:28 collapse

What alternatives do they have? We’re seeing Germanys economy in free fall, VW closing plants for the first time ever, because their only alternative is US LNG, which costs massively more than the energy they had been getting from Russia.

Olgratin_Magmatoe@slrpnk.net on 17 Mar 2025 19:38 next collapse

If only there was some massive ball of super heated plasma in the sky from which we could draw energy from, that also moved the atmosphere of the planet which would open another avenue of energy capture, which also happened to move vast quantities of heavy things like water uphill which would also be an opportunity for energy, or if the ground beneath us was warm enough to use for energy, or if there were shiny green rocks the ground that could be used for power.

Yup, surely there have been zero alternatives.

Bartsbigbugbag@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 20:00 collapse

Wow you’re right, those are all totally viable as primary generation methods, and totally possible to set up in the 2 years since the war started on the scale needed to replace the pipelines you’ve been relying on for decades.

Olgratin_Magmatoe@slrpnk.net on 17 Mar 2025 20:18 next collapse

Redjard already explained this, the situation for Hungary is similar.

Valmond@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 21:50 collapse

2 years? It’s in its fourth year of the full scale invation, otherwise its in its eleventh year.

Redjard@lemmy.dbzer0.com on 17 Mar 2025 19:45 collapse

Fossil gas was a minor energy source for germany and the eu. It was costly to replace 2 years ago but at this point the cost has been paid and the energy is sourced from other fuels.
The german car industry was bound to fall ever since they refused to research electric cars decades ago. Even before then they had been outsourcing but now they simply don’t own the profitable part of electric cars - the battery and power-train.
With or without the war in ukraine they would be disappearing.
The overall german economy is fine, there is increasingly unequal distribution of wealth like many western nations in recent decades, but the economy is ok.

Ps: I don’t recall the numbers for germany, but pre 2022 the EU generated less than 20% of their energy with fossil gas, and less than 14% of their electricity. Germany had a higher ratio, but definitely less than a third.

takeda@lemm.ee on 18 Mar 2025 01:50 collapse

The unequal distribution of wealth is what got US where it is right now. I hope Europe don’t let that happen.

IphtashuFitz@lemmy.world on 16 Mar 2025 22:57 next collapse

Paywall bypass: archive.ph/SojJP

Loduz_247@lemmy.world on 16 Mar 2025 23:55 next collapse

We are close to Russia having oil rationing

GaMEChld@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 00:39 next collapse

Good shot Janson!

eran_morad@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 01:23 next collapse

Fuck Russia, fuck trump.

fake_meows@lemm.ee on 17 Mar 2025 02:31 next collapse

They don’t have the cards?!?

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 17 Mar 2025 05:00 next collapse

No, they don’t. Ukraine is about to get kicked out from Kursk and lose the little leverage they had in the negotiations.

ewo@lemmy.sdf.org on 17 Mar 2025 05:59 next collapse
cows_are_underrated@feddit.org on 17 Mar 2025 07:05 next collapse

Average Lemmy.ml commentor

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 17 Mar 2025 13:54 collapse

Have you been following the news this past week?

anzo@programming.dev on 17 Mar 2025 16:08 next collapse

Perhaps you may want to diversify on those that are feeding propaganda to you ;)

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 17 Mar 2025 16:43 collapse

Sure, do you have a source from this past week claiming Ukraine is not losing ground in Kursk?

Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz on 17 Mar 2025 21:14 collapse

I don’t think he can have. He knows Ukraine has been losing ground in Kursk. But he also understands that this is not really relevant at this point. The Russia has not been advancing in any noticeable manner since early 2022. (Okay, in 2024 they did gain 0.7 % percent of Ukraine’s total territory in just one year, but I would not call gaining under one percent of a country’s territory advancing, really)

It would be useful for Ukraine to remain in the Kursk area, but what can you do when all your warehouses’ and military bases’ locations in the area are suddenly known by your enemy? It’s a huge task building new ones in different places, and one cannot do so in just a couple of days.

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 17 Mar 2025 21:31 collapse

Russia has been gaining ground steadily.

Ukraine is about to be kicked out of Kursk.

I have no satisfaction nor happiness while wearing this, it is just the unfortunate truth.

Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz on 17 Mar 2025 21:39 collapse

And the Russia will remain gaining ground at the same steady speed of 0.7 percent per year. In just 7 years, by 2032, they will already have conquered another one twentieth of Ukraine! Ura!

If the Russia keeps its ground gaining steady and does not increase its speed tenfold, then that means the Russia is doing seriously badly. Losing 400 000 soldiers in a year (as dead and wounded, not only dead!) and not managing to unsteady that rate of advance means things are seriously going badly!

drhodl@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 22:35 next collapse

Ruzzian wounded may as well be dead. Ruzzia is now fielding battalions of wounded soldiers, going back into battle on crutches, no less. Ruzzians have been told to execute their wounded. Their economy can’t support so many wounded, they need the money to refurbish more old tanks.

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 18 Mar 2025 01:24 collapse

You’re assuming Ukraine will continue receiving the same level of support it has been receiving so far.

Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz on 18 Mar 2025 19:28 collapse

It will not necessarily continue receiving the same level of support. But it will receive support from all EU countries neighbouring the Russia, because that is a lot cheaper than what happens if the Russia gets a result that Putin can advertise as a Russian victory. Because then we are next.

These countries will not end their support anyway. With only our help, the Russia will increase its territorial gains to possibly almost two percent of Ukraine’s total territory per year, but those gains will still be far from enough for the Russia to win before its economy goes down. The war will last longer that way, and more Ukrainians will die, but of course Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Sweden don’t want to have a war in their own countries. And the Danes are just awesome for reasons I cannot completely understand. We are only a fraction of the size of the whole EU, but we are not in a position to stop supporting Ukraine, and we are enough to slow the Russia enough to keep from winning.

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 18 Mar 2025 22:18 collapse

Unfortunately I do not think those European countries can slow down Russia enough. Ukraine has troubles hiring more soldiers. It’s not looking good.

Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz on 19 Mar 2025 19:59 collapse

The Russia has those same problems as well, not only Ukraine. And Ukraine has the good thing that if it starts really seriously losing ground because of lack of soldiers, they will get more soldiers. People are scared shitless of what would happen if the Russia took over their homes. Ukraine’s problem with the number of soldiers is a self-correcting one.

Also, the Russia needs to pay an increasing amount of money to hire soldiers. They get 200 000 Rubles per month for the service, while in the rural areas 8 000 Rubles per month is a realistic salary for a factory worker. It’s a big difference, but anything smaller would not get people to risk their lives. And now that everything is getting more expensive with inflation around 20 %, you can buy all the time less and less bread for those 200 000 Rubles per month. And it’s not really Rubles that they are after, but bread and heating. When prices of bread and heating rise, then also the soldiers’ requirements for the salary level rise the same amount. There are reports of Russian troops’ numbers dwindling.

It is true that Ukraine does have troubles recruiting soldiers, but it is a problem only if those troubles are bigger than how the enemy is faring regarding the same. If the Russia has more troubles recruiting soldiers than Ukraine does, then it’s a net positive for Ukraine in the end.

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 19 Mar 2025 20:06 collapse

Russia does not have more troubles hiring soldiers than Ukraine.

Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz on 19 Mar 2025 22:15 collapse

Not necessarily. But it does habe about the same amount if trouble. Remember that the Russia’s manpower consumption is extremely high, so they need to recruit a lot more than Ukraine in order to.keep their army from shrinking in manpower.

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 19 Mar 2025 22:22 collapse

No, while Russia may have lost more soldiers than Ukraine overall, Russia has lost a lot less soldiers per capita than Ukraine.

Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz on 19 Mar 2025 22:43 collapse

~300000 vs. ~70000. 140 million vs 40 million.

=

0,0021 deaths per inhabitant vs 0,0018 deaths per inhabitant.

In military losses including wounded the Russia’s situation is better in comparison to population, if.you look at raw numbers: about twice as many losses, but 3½ times the population. But it is always much easier for the defender to recruit soldiers than it is for the aggressor, so you’d need to add a coefficient for that. All in all, these numbers are in the same ballpark. They should not be able to make a huge difference, because both are decreasing at roughly comparable rates.

And I repeat: because of the Russia’s exceptionally cruel behaviour in the temporarily occupied regions, the Ukrainians are likely to find much more manpower if manpower shortage becomes acute enough for the Russia to start advancing.

I don’t think either side is going to win or lose the war because of manpower shortages.

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 20 Mar 2025 17:39 collapse

No, Ukrainians are not more likely to join the war efforts, it has been pretty clearly demonstrated by the difficulties of the Ukrainian army to hire more soldiers.

As Russia keeps advancing, it will further damage the moral of the Ukrainians. Ukraine can not win a war of attrition against Russia.

Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz on 20 Mar 2025 22:48 collapse

What do you mean with this “As Russia keeps advancing”? It has not advanced since February 2022. The conversation is a bit difficult when the foundations of the conversation are so uneven. You talk about “Russia advancing”, and to my knowledge, that has not happened. Could you please elaborate?

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 20 Mar 2025 23:14 collapse

What do you mean it has not advanced since February 2022? That’s quite a wild statement. Just look at how many regions have been captured by Russia last year and this year alone.

Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz on 21 Mar 2025 10:42 collapse

During the year 2024 the Russia managed to conquer 0.7 % of Ukraine’s total land area. Less than a percent.

The areas conquered are indeed many, but that’s just because they count places like Niu York and Progress. Those have such weird names because they are old kolkhozes – very big farms. Soviet farms had a lot of workers, and therefore houses, but it is still about conquering a kolkhoz.

Conquering 0.7 % of country’s territory is not “advancing”. The Russia keeps advertising its 100 metre successes as advancing, and for some weird reason the western media reports about those as advances.

But it is still 0.7 %. A negligible area.

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 21 Mar 2025 11:55 collapse

That’s advancing and is not negligible.

Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz on 21 Mar 2025 15:16 collapse

It’s quite a big claim that capturing 0.7 percent of a country is in any way significant.

I am not aware of any mechanic that would cause such a small change of territory control to have any noteworthy effect on a war’s result. If the 0.7 % are indeed significant, how?

Cethin@lemmy.zip on 17 Mar 2025 18:31 collapse

Sure. Ukraine is retreating from the Kursk region, with minimal losses. Holding dirt doesn’t win wars. Meanwhile they’re making huge wins in east (not a ton of dirt, but destroying assets and soldiers), and these strikes into Russia on very strategically important assets.

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 17 Mar 2025 19:55 collapse

Thank you for confirming Ukrainian soldiers are getting kicked out from Kursk.

Cethin@lemmy.zip on 17 Mar 2025 20:11 next collapse

I don’t know if you buy this, but Ukraine says it’s part of the plan. That sounds like what Russia says. If you don’t believe them, why do you believe what Russia says?

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 17 Mar 2025 20:42 collapse

I don’t believe that withdrawing from Kursk because the Russians are gaining ground day after day is part of some sort of grand plan.

Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz on 17 Mar 2025 21:10 next collapse

The Russia has not been gaining ground after early 2022. During the year 2024 they gained more ground than anybody in the west expected, because USA stopped its weapon deliveries for 6 months in the end of June 2024.

When the Russia gained ground exceptionally fast, it gained 0.7 % of Ukraine’s total territory in that one year. Less than a percent. Okay, technically that is indeed gaining ground, but in the big picture of the war that’s an irrelevant amount. If the Russia manages to gain 5 % of Ukraine’s territory in 12 months, it’s okay to say they are gaining ground. But with the speed they are “advancing” now… Heh.

The Russia gaining ground at a speed of 0.7 % of Ukraine’s territory and losing 400 000 soldiers as dead and wounded per year in the process is indeed part of some grand plan of Ukraine’s. The Russia won’t run out of people with that pace for another 250 years or so, but it will run out of soldiers, because it is losing them faster than it’s able to recruit new ones.

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 17 Mar 2025 21:30 collapse

You see, we agree Ukraine will run out of soldiers soon.

Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz on 17 Mar 2025 21:46 next collapse

Why would it? Finland has a total army strength of quite precisely one million if you count in the reserve.

Ukraine has fielded about that many soldiers altogether, perhaps a little less.

Finland has a population of 5.6 million, Ukraine has a population of 40 million. Per capita they have about one seventh of the amount of soldiers compared to Finland. Meaning, they should be, by all logic, able to find another seven times as many soldiers as they have found now. It’s weird that the do not!

While Ukrainians’ will to go to front is far greater than that of Germans’ or the French, the size of Ukraine’s army tells of a big problem with motivation. It is super weird, but even under the current circumstances, most Ukrainians don’t bother joining to help protect their country. (And because they don’t, the current soldiers almost never get relieved for holidays, and that’s a reason why people don’t want to join the army…)

That is a self-correcting problem. If it happens that Ukraine runs out of soldiers so badly that the Russia will start advancing at a speed of five percent of Ukraine’s total territory per year instead of the current 0.7 %, then Ukrainians will get scared and more people will be motivated to move their butts. And then there are enough soldiers again.

The Russia does not have such a self-correcting mechanism with its army size. Actually the opposite: While Ukraine doing badly will motivate more Ukrainians to come for help, the Russia doing badly means their economy is doing badly, and therefore their ability to pay good salaries for their soldiers will be doing badly. Their soldiers are in it for the money. No money --> extremely difficult to find enough Russian soldiers.

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 18 Mar 2025 01:28 collapse

You’re being overly optimistic. Ukrainians are already tired of the war effort and as you said many of them aren’t interested in joining the war in the front lines.

Russia advancing faster will only make more people want to stop the massacre, or more people flee abroad.

Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz on 18 Mar 2025 05:31 collapse

Of course they want to stop the massacre. Like I said: if the Russia gets too close to winning, and therefore dramatically increasing the scale of the massacre, more people will join to help at the front. You know, it’s almost as if people didn’t want to die?!

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 18 Mar 2025 12:49 collapse

That’s right, people don’t want to die, so it’s not likely they will join the front when the chances of dying are even higher than they are today.

Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz on 18 Mar 2025 19:23 collapse

They are Ukrainians. The Russia will do in all of Ukraine what it has been doing in the occupied areas. A Ukrainian has thus a far higher chance to die if he ends up under Russian occupation than if he tries to stop the Russia from occupying his country.

For Ukrainians it’s a no-brainer. “If my country will probably stay independent without my help, I will do nothing. But if it looks like my country might lose its independence, of course I want to decrease my risk of dying, so I will go to the front to defend this country.”

There are terror attacks against Ukrainian civilians every day. They are still torturing people who are not pro-Putin enough, like they have been doing for 11 years already. All of Ukraine will be one big Mariupol/Bucha/Kherson/Irpin, if the Russia manages to take over it. Why would anybody choose that?

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 18 Mar 2025 22:10 collapse

No, a Ukrainian does not have far higher chances to die if he ends up under Russian occupation compared to if he tried to stop the Russian from occupying his country. It is obviously a lot more dangerous to fight on the front lines than just live life under occupation.

Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz on 18 Mar 2025 22:19 collapse

It’s not life but death, though. What’s so difficult to understand about the word “genocide”?

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 18 Mar 2025 22:21 collapse

Is there a genocide in Crimea and the Western Ukrainians regions under Russian control?

Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz on 18 Mar 2025 22:23 collapse

Yes? WTF is this question of yours supposed to mean?

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 18 Mar 2025 22:28 collapse

Can you show me? How many Ukrainians have been killed in Crimea last year? How many have been killed in the Eastern regions controlled by the Russians?

I’m not talking about the fights in the front line.

Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz on 18 Mar 2025 23:23 collapse

Here’s something that was among the first search results when searching for Russia Kherson torture: hrw.org/…/ukraine-russian-torture-center-kherson

And then of course you can just read Putin’s texts and texts published by the government’s news agency RIA, telling that Ukrainians are not really human and they should not exist. He’s told several times, first in 2021, that the existence of Ukrainians is a problem that needs to be corrected. And right in the last few days now in March 2025 he has been reiterating that there can be a ceasefire negotiations only if Ukraine first demilitarizes, which shows that if Putin doesn’t manage to conquer all of Ukraine, he sees the war as an utter defeat. His goal is to remove the nation of Ukrainians from the face of this planet, and he is not going to settle with anything less.

Yes, of course at the moment the genocide is somewhat dormant, because the Russia needs to concentrate on other efforts. But what happened in Bucha and Irpin and other Russia-occupied territories in early 2022 is what will happen elsewhere in full scale (and is happening in a smaller scale already now) if the Russia manages to completely take over Ukraine. Ukrainians understand this, and that’s why the country is ready to fight until the last man standing, if that must be. Still a better death.

Now I’ll need to go sleeping (already two hours ago, heh), but do search for “russian media monitor” genocide on Youtube. Here’s one video that I found very quickly: www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEDMbF-F4lo . This is from the main channel of the national television in the Russia.

This article was one of the most clearly articulated I’ve read in the Russian media: en.wikipedia.org/…/What_Russia_Should_Do_with_Ukr… . They used to write a lot about this in early 2022, because they thought they would start with it soon full scale and need to prepare the Russian people for removing the Ukrainians. The main point of the article was that in one part it said that all nazis in Ukraine should be killed, and in another part of the same article it was said that anybody who supports the Ukrainian regime is a nazi. And here’s about Putin’s speech from three days before the war turned into a full-scale invasion: en.wikipedia.org/…/Address_concerning_the_events_… (And since the full-scale invasion was supposed to happen on 22.02.2022, it was supposed to be on the day before.)

After 2022, there have been constant references to the same idea, but Putin has retained the main thought that it is imperative for the Russia to get rid of the concept of Ukrainians existing.

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 18 Mar 2025 23:46 collapse

Thank you for sharing, I will read these this week.

drhodl@lemmy.world on 18 Mar 2025 03:19 collapse

Stop being so obtuse, Yuri :)

Cethin@lemmy.zip on 17 Mar 2025 22:59 collapse

I don’t exactly either. You ignored half my comment. Do you believe it when Russia says similar things? If so, why? Ukraine has an image they need to sell, but it’s even more important for Russia, so don’t believe them either.

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 18 Mar 2025 01:41 collapse

Ok so if you don’t believe Ukraine here, what other explanation is there to justify the withdrawal from Kursk.

We don’t have to listen to the Russian narrative, we can just think about why Ukrainians would withdraw.

Cethin@lemmy.zip on 18 Mar 2025 07:17 collapse

Man, you really don’t like justifying your beliefs. You’re always in the offense so you don’t have to answer anything about why you supposedly believe what you’re saying. You just pivot to some other shit. I can answer all your questions because my beliefs aren’t just based on faith like yours seem to be.

Why are they retreating? It’s because it was untenable to hold their current positions without large losses, and they’d gain nothing for it. Why wouldn’t they retreat. Do I think that was the plan all along? Not really. It has worked to draw forces from the east and allowed Ukraine to push there, to great effect though.

It’s not 4D chess. It’s just a sound strategy to retreat while you can without taking heavy losses and use that time to inflict heavy losses on your enemy. Russia isn’t doing as well in this regard. They’re taking dirt without strategic wins. They lose tons of men and assets taking what amounts to nothing. Holding ground does not create a strategic victory unless it creates an opportunity. Most of what Russia takes doesn’t. Dirt doesn’t do anything for you.

If you’d like to prove you actually have a brain, go to the above comments and answer the questions. Otherwise, you appear to be no better than a bot that can’t think for themselves.

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 18 Mar 2025 12:58 collapse

Can you avoid using derogatory terms against me? I’m willing to have a civil discussion with people of varied opinions, as long as it remains civil.

Ok so we agree Ukraine is withdrawing from Kursk because they got kicked out. It’s a pretty big deal considering Ukraine was relying on that to negotiate the exchange of territories with Russia during the negotiations; and now has lost that little leverage it had.

Russia is expanding its territory steadily, it might just be dirt today but it does not have to remain dirt in the future.

drhodl@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 21:30 collapse

Ukrainians are withdrawing gracefully, probably due to Drumph ceasing all intelligence sharing. Had the ruzzians been in that situation, they’d have just let their soldiers die. Why aren’t YOU at the front, comrade?

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 17 Mar 2025 21:35 collapse

American support and intelligence has only been paused for one week and has resumed since.

Same question back to you, comrade.

drhodl@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 22:26 collapse

The Ukrainians didn’t KNOW it would be only for a week, dumb Yuri ! :)

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 18 Mar 2025 01:30 collapse

Why do you resort to insulting me just because you and I have different opinions? That’s very telling of your personality. Do better. Have a good life.

drhodl@lemmy.world on 18 Mar 2025 03:11 collapse

It’s not possible to insult a ruzzian orc. Whatever possible derision I can come up with, is still a compliment to a filthy orc, Yuri.

mysticpickle@lemmy.ca on 17 Mar 2025 07:08 next collapse

🚨🚨**TANKIE ALERT!!**🚨🚨

Melchior@feddit.org on 17 Mar 2025 07:39 next collapse

What part of the US did the Taliban conquer to exchange it for the US to leave the country?

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 17 Mar 2025 13:55 collapse

This is not at comparable with the US invasion of Afghanistan.

GreyEyedGhost@lemmy.ca on 17 Mar 2025 16:16 next collapse

…because the aggressor has the outdated equipment?

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 17 Mar 2025 16:43 collapse

Because many people in Crimea and in the eastern regions actually want to be under Russian influence.

GreyEyedGhost@lemmy.ca on 17 Mar 2025 17:01 next collapse

And there are ways for them to get that. For instance, about 200,000 Afghans resided or immigrated to America between 2000 and 2021. What was stopping those in Crimea from doing the same? And we haven’t even addressed if that “many” is actually a majority.

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 17 Mar 2025 17:14 next collapse

The opposite is happening, people who want to remain under Ukrainian influence are moving to the regions still under Ukrainian control.

GreyEyedGhost@lemmy.ca on 17 Mar 2025 18:09 next collapse

What I heard was, “The people who don’t want to be under Russian influence or live under wartime conditions are moving to the regions that aren’t engaged in military occupation.”

[deleted] on 17 Mar 2025 21:36 next collapse
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drhodl@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 22:42 collapse

Is that because of the ruzzians so kindly setting up a removalist service, with all the trimmings, Yuri? That’s a /s by the way. The fact is ruzzians are stealing any children they can get their foul grubby paws on. Any males are being forcibly conscripted to fight against their own people. Lord knows what those vile animals do with the women… Ruzzians are orcs in vaguely human shape. Their supporters are even worse.

Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz on 17 Mar 2025 21:16 collapse

A lot of Crimeans DID do the same. Why do you assume they didn’t?

GreyEyedGhost@lemmy.ca on 17 Mar 2025 23:08 collapse

I don’t, but it does seem a better option than war.

Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz on 18 Mar 2025 00:35 collapse

That’s obvious, but there’s not much the Crimeans could do to influence Putin. How would they have done that?

GreyEyedGhost@lemmy.ca on 18 Mar 2025 01:29 collapse

Is this supposed to be a serious question? If Putin genuinely wanted to help them and not himself, they wouldn’t have to offer anything other than their loyalty and he could have given them a place in his vast country. But there is little evidence he cares about the welfare of his subjects and that wouldn’t have given him an excuse to attack his neighbor.

Fluke@lemm.ee on 17 Mar 2025 20:05 next collapse

That would be the Russians sent there to cause trouble as “separatists” right?

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 17 Mar 2025 20:41 collapse

Or just people who have been living there.

drhodl@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 22:37 collapse

I hear ruzzian colonists have been fleeing back to mainland ruzzia from Crimea, Yuri. That doesn’t seem good for ruzzia’s future in that area :)

Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz on 17 Mar 2025 21:18 collapse

Anybody in Crimea knows that if you say Crimea is Ukraine, you will quite soon get beaten up seriously badly. A person cannot know whether you will rat him out or not, so It does not matter what he thinks – he will absolutely say that he supports the Russia. Practically everybody in Crimea will say that they do, no matter what they think.

drhodl@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 21:34 collapse

How about the soviet ruzzian invasion of Afghanistan, before that? You ruzzians sure are great at losing. Maybe that’s why Drumph loves Pootang the Tiny so much :) You should stick to things you’re good at, like consuming anti-freeze vodka and wife beating, hey?

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 17 Mar 2025 21:36 collapse

That’s not comparable either.

As for the rest, your comment is useless and classless, I’m not Russian.

drhodl@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 22:26 collapse

Sure thing, Yuri :)

ayyy@sh.itjust.works on 17 Mar 2025 16:29 next collapse

Do you think invading a sovereign country is ok? What are your thoughts on bombing childrens’ hospitals?

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 17 Mar 2025 16:44 collapse

No, of course not, but I’m not the one making the rules.

Siegfried@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 17:52 next collapse

Good job russia, they finally achieved something… like 6 months later… and with the ukrainians leaving on their own… but we have to give them something, right?

Fuck russia

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 17 Mar 2025 18:16 collapse

The Ukrainians are leaving on their own? Why are they leaving?

Siegfried@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 19:45 next collapse

They got tired of killing koreans probably

perestroika@lemm.ee on 17 Mar 2025 23:31 collapse

Sadly, the situation was considerably more dire.

In Kursk, at the end, Ukrainian troops (about 12 000 men) were supplied using a single good road. Russia brought in enough offensive power (about 70 000 men) to push on that road, and despite heavy losses, reached artillery and drone range. Russia then relocated some of their best droners to the area (both countries have elite drone units with better equipment and experience) and started attacking nearly every supply vehicle that they could. Logistics broke down.

Then Trump pulled the intel and HIMARS strikes ceased for a while.

As a result, the Ukrainian contingent in Kursk received orders to do an orderly retreat. But they received them late. In reality, they had to save themselves using rather ungraceful methods, often abandoning vehicles (bridge was blown up) and moving on foot.

The Kursk offensive helped distract Russia more than a little, but shouldn’t have ended that way. I’m fairly certain ISW will write in detail about the Kursk events in their next review of developments, but the lesson as it appears to me: “retreat before your movement routes come under fire”.

As for long range strike drones, Ukrainians have some of the best in the world, and they’re working hard with them. Also, recently, what appeared to be an Ukrainian cruise missile circumnavigated Crimea and hit an oil depot south of the peninsula. Which means 1000+ km of cruise missile range. Moscow needs only around 700 km.

Siegfried@lemmy.world on 18 Mar 2025 01:35 collapse

I know, but I activated the troll protocol with OP

drhodl@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 21:27 collapse

The loss of American support and intelligence sharing, exposed their soldiers to greater risks, so they performed a tactical withdrawal. Had it been ruzzia in that situation, they’d have just let their soldiers die, and sent more in to die also.

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 17 Mar 2025 21:34 collapse

American support and intelligence has only been paused for one week and has resumed since.

drhodl@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 22:28 collapse

Did you forget you already said this a minute ago, Yuri? Damn but that anti-freeze vodka sure does hit hard, hey? :)

perestroika@lemm.ee on 17 Mar 2025 23:43 collapse

Cards are ever-changing, but the main card of both sides is possibly agreeing to stop, if certain conditions are satisfied.

If Ukrainians could have stayed in Kursk, it would have been something to trade back during negotiations. But apparently, Putin didn’t like that prospect and made Russian troops concentrate a lot of force in Kursk. This force came at the expense of other fronts. During the time Russia was bombing Russian territory, it spent less energy bombing Ukraine.

I don’t think Ukrainians are very cheerful about losing Kursk, but it was meant as a distraction - this direction was weakly defended, they got in easily, stayed for six months, just the coming back out turned ugly.

drhodl@lemmy.world on 18 Mar 2025 03:15 next collapse

They only withdrew because US stopped intelligence sharing. Unlike Pootang the Tinyman, President Z wants his soldiers to survive.

alkbch@lemmy.ml on 18 Mar 2025 03:42 collapse

That’s right, Ukrainians wanted to use Kursk to trade against something else during the negotiations; soon they might not be able to do that anymore.

mysticpickle@lemmy.ca on 17 Mar 2025 07:12 collapse
Ilovethebomb@lemm.ee on 17 Mar 2025 05:44 next collapse

Man, a fuel shortage in Moscow is something Putin would struggle to downplay.

Ronno@feddit.nl on 17 Mar 2025 07:10 next collapse

“See, I told you they are attacking us!” /s

Dasus@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 21:23 next collapse

“Extreme climate control measures. The decadent West is not taking responsibility for the climate change, so we must act radically to save the Earth.”

I think Russians are so used to their government lying that no-one would even really care.

AnUnusualRelic@lemmy.world on 18 Mar 2025 13:26 collapse

The fuel rations have been increased to two litres!

pineapplelover@lemm.ee on 17 Mar 2025 06:08 next collapse

Man this is terrible for the environment

Verdorrterpunkt@feddit.org on 17 Mar 2025 06:48 next collapse

Well, using the fuel is too, weakening russia on the other hand is great for it.

pineapplelover@lemm.ee on 17 Mar 2025 18:41 collapse

I mean I’m not defending Russia or anything. It just hurts me to see a thick black cloud covering the sky. Poor animals. Just shows how harmful fossil fuels are

drhodl@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 21:46 collapse

You shouldn’t call ruzzians “poor animals”, even if they are :)

Aceticon@lemmy.dbzer0.com on 17 Mar 2025 15:42 collapse

It’s producing no more polution than it would otherwise have produced when used in cars and for heating, only this way the polution is confined to were the guys who pumped it out knowing how bad it was for the Environment live.

It’s about the fairest form of polution possible.

NotMyOldRedditName@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 19:01 collapse

Some of the methods this might have been used in may have had some steps involved to reduce pollutants. The overall c02 though would be the same.

ms_lane@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 06:31 next collapse

womp womp.

burgerpocalyse@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 07:42 next collapse

i wonder how they did it without Elon knowing about it

Teppichbrand@feddit.org on 17 Mar 2025 19:33 next collapse

Schrödingers Russia is on the verge of collaps and about to conquer Europe for three years now

MyBrainHurts@lemmy.ca on 17 Mar 2025 23:30 next collapse

When you gear an entire economy to war, you simultaneously run the risk of economic collapse and conquering. It’s what happened to the Soviet Union in '89, the economy was in shambles but militarily they were still a powerhouse.

OsrsNeedsF2P@lemmy.ml on 18 Mar 2025 07:31 collapse

If years of RTS taught me anything, this is a very possible situation to be in

Retropunk64@lemm.ee on 17 Mar 2025 19:46 next collapse

Fuck yeah, tank em.

SoloCritical@lemm.ee on 17 Mar 2025 21:14 next collapse

Good… because fuck em… that’s why.

minkymunkey_7_7@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 21:45 collapse

PopCopy!

drhodl@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 21:23 next collapse

This would be why Pootang is having a talk with his lapdog, Drumph, tomorrow! He usually doesn’t act with such unseemly haste LOL. Hopefully, Ukraine will ignore whatever terms those two shitstains manage to come up with, WITHOUT any Ukrainian input.

Ilovethebomb@lemm.ee on 18 Mar 2025 22:28 collapse

Do we really have to do the silly name thing?

drhodl@lemmy.world on 19 Mar 2025 03:53 collapse

You do your thing, I’ll do mine, hey? I just want to show my great disrespect and loathing for the scum that invaded and are murdering Ukrainians. There’s not a lot of ways to do that and remain socially acceptable, apparently.

Ilovethebomb@lemm.ee on 19 Mar 2025 04:02 collapse

You could just call them scum then.

FinishingDutch@lemmy.world on 17 Mar 2025 22:40 next collapse

Sounds great; anything that hinders Russia is cause for celebration.

CheeseToastie@lazysoci.al on 18 Mar 2025 13:04 collapse

Ain’t that the truth

Spacehooks@reddthat.com on 17 Mar 2025 23:12 next collapse

Russia gonna spec into tesla tanks now?

Scott_of_the_Arctic@lemmy.world on 18 Mar 2025 01:38 next collapse

Lol

hal9000@lemmy.ca on 18 Mar 2025 13:38 next collapse

The bald midget must be so mad right now.

RymrgandsDaughter@lemmy.world on 18 Mar 2025 18:33 next collapse

big W for Ukraine

aldfin@lemm.ee on 18 Mar 2025 20:12 collapse

And surprise surprise Trump helps out Putin by negotiating a ceasefire for energy infrastructure.