Phil Gunson: If Trump does not force Venezuela to hold free elections, 'they can agree on almost everything' (www.lemonde.fr)
from HellsBelle@sh.itjust.works to world@lemmy.world on 05 Jan 17:52
https://sh.itjust.works/post/52873480

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What remains of the Venezuelan government?

Apart from Maduro, everyone else remains in place; the government is intact. The vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, has taken the lead.

Can this government survive?

Everything seems to suggest it can. [On Saturday], Donald Trump said he was ready to make a deal with those who remain. As for [Venezuelan opposition leader and 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate] Maria Corina Machado, he had harsh words for her, saying it would be difficult for her to lead the country because she has neither the support nor the respect of the population. In contrast, he spoke positively of Rodriguez, which was a let-down for the opposition. It is ironic, as the entire opposition had been hoping for Maduro’s departure to establish a democratic government. Trump, however, does not seem very willing to support the opposition’s plans. What does Trump mean when he says he will run the country until there is a transition? That is a good question, and we don’t really know. Democracy is not something he cares much about. The opposition was wrong to think that a man who has been dismantling democracy in his own country would help them establish it in theirs. When Trump talks about “transition,” I believe all he cares about is having the Venezuelan government do what he wants. He is not concerned with whether it was democratically elected. He talks about transition because everyone else does, but, for him, it does not have to be a democratic one.

It is important to know that the economic crisis has flared up again here, and the situation is very complicated. In this way, it would be in the Rodriguez government’s interest to reach an agreement with Washington that would help gradually lift the sanctions. We know that Trump is very pragmatic: If he does not force Caracas to hold free elections, I think they can agree on almost everything.

What does he want in Venezuela?

He explicitly said it, and there is no reason not to believe him: He wants the oil. But he also wants to curb China’s presence. Venezuelan oil is very important for the US, especially because the refineries located on the Gulf [of Mexico] were specifically designed to process this type of heavy, low-quality oil. Moreover, it is close to the US. In those refineries, oil had to be shipped from Russia to replace it. Canada represented another option, but a planned pipeline that would have stretched all the way to the Gulf was canceled.

From a political standpoint, what motivates Trump most is excluding the Chinese and other geopolitical rivals. As Venezuela’s oil industry is in deep decline, producing much less than before, and as the world has learned to live without this oil, it is not of vital [economic] importance. But it is from a geopolitical perspective: Trump wants the Western Hemisphere to be under US hegemony.

#world