Depends on how well Starmer fares, and how good the right’s data microtargeting game is. If left-leaning voters stay home due to Starmer tacking to the right (and, in key electorates, precisely targeted Facebook ads inducing disgust in just enough voters), while the right-wing papers keep going on about Labour’s loony-left socialist programme driving Britain off the cliff (illustrated with photos of empty shelves in Venezuela), Labour will find itself falling between two stools.

No it won’t. The FPTP will propel Reform into government if two things happen:

1. Badenoch (or whomever replaces her) fails to drum up support at the next election.

2. Reform manages to not implode into infighting and avoid a scandal that causes a collapse in support.

It’s not unheard of for one of the two major parties to cease to be a thing (See the Whigs, Radicals, and the Liberals).

Will Reform win a majority outright? I would say it’s unlikely. But I would bet they will receive stronger support at the next election as Labour fails to dramatically improve the wellbeing and wallets of the working class.

The same people who, after decades of collapse under Thatcherism, then neglect by Blairism, and finally being squeezed by Austerity, through their support behind Brexit and Brexitiers like Boris and Farage because they peddled xenophobic-flavoured Hopium.

They’ll do it again, because with the weight of the rightwing media serving up easy to understand slogans when these people barely have enough energy left for analysing political discourse and policies after worrying about the roof over their head and having enough food in their bellies.

For the Tories to cease to be a party they’d have to lose MPs and financial backers, that is unlikely to happen within a single election unless the Tories sustain huge losses.

What I bet will happen is that they get enough votes in this election to become the official opposition IF they form a coalition with the Conservative Party. Farage will use the opportunity to mold the Tory party in his image with a potential merger when they see their approval numbers increase under his guidance and then the next election will lead them to victory.

He’s betting that the conditions of the working class will continue to worsen due to growing inequality, that the refugee crisis will worsen due to climate change, and that his media friends will be able to manage the narrative long enough to get him into No. 10.

The AfD in Germany also was a split off of the CDU. Now they are second strongest in the last federal election.