CRUDE OIL: Iran was exporting ~1.5 million barrels/day, earning $139M/day at wartime pricing (~$87/barrel). A blockade zeroes this out overnight. Kharg Island, which handles 92% of crude exports, sits deep inside the Gulf with no viable alternative. That’s $139M/day, GONE.
PETROCHEMICALS: Iran exported $19.7B in petrochemicals in 9 months of 2024/25, ~$54M/day. Virtually all of it ships through Assaluyeh, Imam Khomeini, and Shahid Rajaee, all inside the blockade zone. No overland route can move these volumes. Another $54M/day, GONE.
IMPORTS: Iran imported $58B in goods in 2025, ~$159M/day. A blockade chokes off industrial inputs, machinery, and consumer goods.
PORTS: Over 90% of Iran’s seaborne trade transits the Strait of Hormuz. Shahid Rajaee (Bandar Abbas) alone handles 53% of all cargo operations. Imam Khomeini handles 58% of basic goods imports. Bushehr ports moved 57M tons last year. All deep inside the Gulf. Iran’s options outside the Strait are negligible.
CURRENCY COLLAPSE ACCELERANT: The rial has already cratered from 42,000 to 1.5M per dollar. Banks are limiting withdrawals to $18-30/day. Overall inflation: 47.5%. A blockade eliminating all forex earnings pushes the rial into extreme hyperinflation.
If americans succesfully blockade Iran, the regime will collapse in 1 month.
givesomefucks@lemmy.world
on 13 Apr 17:24
nextcollapse
It’s game over.
That hinges on if the US Navy will board and/or fire on a 3rd party tanker that Iran is letting pass.
Shippers have insurance now and they don’t care about the lives of their crews
With the price of gas, someone will order their ship to test it. If one goes thru, then a bunch will go at once.
Edit:
Hard to read around paywall, but article says trump is only “blockading” things going to/from an Iranian port…
Shit will just touch a port in another country first, not change cargo, and then sail right past…
Easy loophole, and still puts how bad this is, on if US ships will actually try to enforce anything
Which country is more self sustainable Iran or South Korea? Because South Korea industries are grinding to a halt because they can’t get resources through the Hormuz strait. Other asian countries are also very hard pressed, and the Arab countries along the strait are also essentially blocked.
Seen in isolation everything you write seems pretty spot on, but I don’t think it’s that simple.
The only thing that is for sure is that USA has already lost allies, and every day this draws out, USA is alienating the world more.
threaded - newest
Americans just discovered the weak point of Iran.
It’s game over
CRUDE OIL: Iran was exporting ~1.5 million barrels/day, earning $139M/day at wartime pricing (~$87/barrel). A blockade zeroes this out overnight. Kharg Island, which handles 92% of crude exports, sits deep inside the Gulf with no viable alternative. That’s $139M/day, GONE.
PETROCHEMICALS: Iran exported $19.7B in petrochemicals in 9 months of 2024/25, ~$54M/day. Virtually all of it ships through Assaluyeh, Imam Khomeini, and Shahid Rajaee, all inside the blockade zone. No overland route can move these volumes. Another $54M/day, GONE.
IMPORTS: Iran imported $58B in goods in 2025, ~$159M/day. A blockade chokes off industrial inputs, machinery, and consumer goods.
PORTS: Over 90% of Iran’s seaborne trade transits the Strait of Hormuz. Shahid Rajaee (Bandar Abbas) alone handles 53% of all cargo operations. Imam Khomeini handles 58% of basic goods imports. Bushehr ports moved 57M tons last year. All deep inside the Gulf. Iran’s options outside the Strait are negligible.
CURRENCY COLLAPSE ACCELERANT: The rial has already cratered from 42,000 to 1.5M per dollar. Banks are limiting withdrawals to $18-30/day. Overall inflation: 47.5%. A blockade eliminating all forex earnings pushes the rial into extreme hyperinflation.
If americans succesfully blockade Iran, the regime will collapse in 1 month.
That hinges on if the US Navy will board and/or fire on a 3rd party tanker that Iran is letting pass.
Shippers have insurance now and they don’t care about the lives of their crews
With the price of gas, someone will order their ship to test it. If one goes thru, then a bunch will go at once.
Edit:
Hard to read around paywall, but article says trump is only “blockading” things going to/from an Iranian port…
Shit will just touch a port in another country first, not change cargo, and then sail right past…
Easy loophole, and still puts how bad this is, on if US ships will actually try to enforce anything
For me opening in private tab is enough to get access.
removepaywalls.com/…/us-blockade-iran-after-talks…
Which country is more self sustainable Iran or South Korea? Because South Korea industries are grinding to a halt because they can’t get resources through the Hormuz strait. Other asian countries are also very hard pressed, and the Arab countries along the strait are also essentially blocked.
Seen in isolation everything you write seems pretty spot on, but I don’t think it’s that simple.
The only thing that is for sure is that USA has already lost allies, and every day this draws out, USA is alienating the world more.