Putin makes clear Russia will only play ball with Ukraine by his rules
(www.theguardian.com)
from MicroWave@lemmy.world to world@lemmy.world on 15 Mar 2025 09:27
https://lemmy.world/post/26869197
from MicroWave@lemmy.world to world@lemmy.world on 15 Mar 2025 09:27
https://lemmy.world/post/26869197
Summary
Vladimir Putin responded to Ukraine’s US-backed ceasefire proposal by imposing strict conditions, including a halt to Kyiv’s military aid and mobilization, while continuing Russia’s own rearmament.
His calculated stance prolongs negotiations without outright rejecting Donald Trump’s initiative, which seeks to end the war while pressuring Ukraine.
Putin also demands Ukraine’s demilitarization, exclusion from NATO, and recognition of Russian territorial claims.
Trump, with limited leverage, may shift toward aligning with Putin’s terms. Meanwhile, Ukraine fears the ceasefire could allow Russia to regroup and intensify its offensive.
#world
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Trump doesn’t care, but on the other hand I really don’t think he is a Russian asset.
Russia is playing their negotiating well. They have projected strength and total commitment to their claimed goals. They were able to do it, because of the diplomatic blunders by the Trump administration. Until now US have not said anything about Russian concessions. They were mentioned, but nothing specific.
On the other side, the Ukrainians will never accept anything close to what the Russians want. Even if America tries to force the conditions on them, they will still have some support from Europe.
Trump wants this. I mean, let’s get serious, if he does it, he could legitimately expect the Nobel prize. I’m not even joking, if he does, he would be an idiot savant of peacemaking. It’s highly unlikely though, but what is his way out?
Trump does not have the cards to force a peace deal, or the skills to negotiate one. Ukraine and Putin are simply too far apart to meet in the middle.
It is not about Trumps skills. My guess is that there might have been a deal, if Trump didn’t get in the way of his advisors by posting on social media and going off script in interviews
Only a cuck would concede anything to Putin, and Trump is king cuck.
Thats completely naive. Reality doesn’t work like memes. People are dying, lives are being destroyed.
Ukraine doesn’t have much a choice because they’re losing the war.
Part of losing a war is making concessions with the victor. Sorry you’ve been so propagandized to believe that it’s impossible for Ukraine to lose.
The war is still being fought. No one has won.
Sigh.
I’m sorry, but saying that everyone else who doesn’t agree with you is propagandized is at least lazy if not childish and trolling behavior.
Ukraine is still in it, they are holding of the invading army, which has in the last year only managed to occupy less than a percent of Ukraine and even that has largely stopped. At this rate, if Russia could keep it up, they couldn’t achieve their claimed goals for decades. And there are all the reasons to claim they won’t be able to keep it up.
There is no sense to give to Russia concessions, the Russians cannot take by force. Usually it’s the other way around.
You != Everyone else
Yeah, you’ve been propagandized hard.
No, you have been propagandized harder! 🙄
Did you also think Ukraine was going to retake Crimea?
Do you have putins picture over your need?
See, both of us can play this dumb game.
What dumb game? Where I point out how you fell for propaganda before and then you get mad and say I love putin or something?
This just further proves my point about you being propagandized.
🤣
Bye.
Hope you can learn from this when it’s all said and done.
There are concensions and then there’s functionally disarming so you can be attacked even more easily in 5 years.
What do you mean “more easily attacked”?
Ukraine losing the war means it’s no longer a sovereign state.
Definitely not skills. But both sides in the war want to have a strong start to the negotiation. Ukraine might give up Crimea officially for NATO membership. Russia will do anything that will look like they won.
NATO membership is off the table.
Its the start of the negotiation, everyone will take positions, but might change them. I don’t think Nato is really an option, but they might avoid this and make individual 2 party agreements between Ukraine and Nato countries that would serve as a sort of replacement for actually admitting Ukraine to Nato.
I don’t see Russia accepting that.
Without giving Ukrainians real safety guarantees, they will never stop fighting. Russia knows that. If they don’t accept safety guarantees they are saying, they want to war more.
They will never stop fighting? Ukraine can’t win a war of attrition against Russia.
We can already see that is not the case, if the west continues to support it.
Even with the West’s support Ukraine has been losing ground. Imagine without the US support…
With limited support, while Russia has been losing an unsustainable amount of manpower to occupy less that 1% of the territory in a year. Losing US support will be really bad, but right now the frontlines have been fortified and Ukraine has built up a lot of weapons industry to produce it’s own weapons. I’m not saying it’s going to be easy without US support (even though we cannot say 100% that is really going to happen), what I’m saying is that the situation is way way way more nuanced and complicated than you are claiming.
It’s really not more complicated than I claim, Ukraine also suffered a great number of casualties and has far fewer troops than Russia.
Ukraine can indeed produce some of its own weapons but the country is entirely reliant on external support for its survival. The Americans are growing tired of sending weapons and money. Who knows how long the Europeans will continue supporting Ukraine.
I don’t think you can claim that a few of you 3 word sentences describe the entirety of the war. That’s not serious.
The Americans are not growing tired of sending weapons. Not if you look at the polls. Only the current administration has certain ideas about stopping support, but it’s not clear if they actually will, because of three internal political situation and diplomatic standing of US in the world. European support is even growing.
Polls show Americans do not wish to keep providing support to Ukraine.
Nobody wants to provide support indefinitely. But that doesn’t mean anyone will stop providing it until it is needed.
It means the support will dwindle away.
Thats an opinion, it has no value.
As much as yours…
Which one is my opinion? That support will not end when Russia wants it? Europe and America will look foolish and weak if they do that. I don’t think they can allow this to happen. Yes, that’s my opinion.
Don’t be disingenuous, it was never about the support stopping when Russia wants it.
It’s about whether the support provided by the West will dwindle away or not.
The U.S. will have no problem to dramatically reduce support for Ukraine. European countries won’t make up the difference.
Thats not disingenuous. Theres is nothing Russia wants more. There is no doubt that the optics of this would be that USA and Europe have kneeled before Russia.
The only part of America that wants to dramatically reduce support is MAGA. They might succeed, but not without consequences.
The majority of Americans do not want to send more money and weapons to Ukraine. That has nothing to do with what Russia wants or does not want.
Show me. I found this: news.gallup.com/…/support-greater-role-ukraine-cl…
The optics of the situation is that America is kneeling before Rusia.
America is not kneeling before Russia, America is doing what is best for America first.
pewresearch.org/…/wide-partisan-divisions-remain-…
pewresearch.org/…/americans-views-of-the-war-in-u…
Your links show hardly any change.
America is kneeling. That’s what people see.
They show the majority of Americans do not want to provide more money and arms to Ukraine. Americans really don’t care what people see.
Check your numbers again. They show that the majority want to either help the same or help more.
The majority of Americans do not want to provide more money and arms to Ukraine. Only a fraction of the population want to provide more arms and money to Ukraine.
Only 30% want to reduce help. Reduce, not even stop. Only 30%.
Nope, the survey is about the help given so far, not about the future. 30% think too much help has been given.
Read it again, that’s not what the survey says. The 23% want the support to stay at the current level.
I disagree. Ukraine is currently getting routed and they will announce their surrender this year if the US continues to withhold support.
The thing about war is that each death makes it harder to fight back. That results in more deaths, which makes it even harder, and hopefully you get the idea if you’re not a useful idiot (sorry this last part needs to be said, but there’s a lot of useful idiots running around these days.)
A country can be losing but in an existential conflict seem to rarely outright surrender. Ukraines position, while dire, is far stronger than the talibans after the US invasion of Iraq. 20 years later, they were still fighting and ultimately prevailed.
In my mind, this Inevitably is in ukraines future if allies don’t continue to materially support Ukraine - either way the Russian occupation ultimately fails, the question is does Ukraine defend itself and remain a sovereign nation or do they fall and an insurgency later force it’s reinstatement.
The difference is Iraqi did not want to be under US occupation where large parts of Crimea and the Eastern regions do want to be independent / under Russian influence.
I’m convinced Trump is chasing the nobel peace prize because Obama has one and he’s still butt hurt over it.
This comment is mentally challenged
Not really. You’re probably not used to people having their own ideas, though.
The support from Europe is not enough for Ukraine to survive.
Maybe it could be, if EU countries actually start up the military production as so many leaders are promising.
Maybe, but even then it would take years to actually ramp up the military production.
Yes. Best case scenario it would be terrible if the US cut off Ukraine. But I think with a generous transition time eu could do it.
Could do what? By the time European military production is up and running Ukraine will be mostly Russian.
With current progression rate, Russia will need more than 50 years to capture whole of Ukraine.
With the current progression rate, the Ukrainian army will run out of soldiers in a few years.
That is a naive statement that is not based on any data. I could say the same for Russia.
It’s based on the number of casualties in the conflict and the fact that Russia has a population about 4 times larger than Ukraine.
Which casualties number? Medvedev one, claiming that Ukraine had a million dead?
Reality is that this war can go on for a decade and both sides will have enough troops. Also warring countries don’t run out of troops or anything. That’s not how reality works. There would be a lot of other major problems long before a warring side would run out of troops.
You don’t have to go with Medeved’s, most estimates are already at several hundred thousands casualties for Ukraine.
That is a Russian number for Ukraine casualties.
Do you believe the Ukrainian number for Russian casualties?
politico.eu/…/ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy-announc…>>
That checks out, however, 370000 are not casualties, but the total number of injuries.
I invite you to look up the definition of the word casualties.
That is not a number of total soldiers lost.
But even if it is. In a scenario where the current army was not enough they could do a full scale mobilization and that would mean they have enough soldiers for many many years.
That is the number of soldiers killed or injured in the war, thus who can no longer fight.
Yes Ukraine could maybe do a full scale mobilization, but that’s a very big risk because it would lead to so many more casualties the country might not be able to bounce back after the war.
Besides, Ukrainians might just avoid the draft and flee.
Some might flee, but many have not. Wars throughout history have shown that nations at war tend to find ways to replenish their forces, whether through conscription, training new recruits, or integrating foreign volunteers. The idea that Ukraine would simply “run out” of soldiers is an oversimplification.
About 7 millions have fled, and that’s before the potential mass mobilization we’re discussing.
It might be an oversimplification but that’s the endgame Ukraine is facing.
That doesn’t happen. Its like a cartoon scenario. In reality a country gets into far bigger other issues long before running out of soldiers becomes a problem.
You’re right it probably doesn’t happen that way as Ukraine will concede before it happens.
You cant concede when the enemy only offers you total destruction.
Total destruction is what happens if you don’t concede.
In this case total destruction happens even if you concede. That’s why there is no sense in conceding.
No, actually total destruction would be avoided if Ukraine concedes now.
Well very obviously no. Russia is offering nothing. Very specifically no guarantees, they want to prevent them getting weapons and prevent them going into any military alliances. That’s total destruction of Ukraine.
And that is something that their opinion leaders have always claimed is the goal.
Ukraine has no other option than to fight, even if every nation in the world stops helping.
That’s not total destruction of Ukraine. Words have meaning.
Fighting until all Ukrainians are dead or have fled or surrendered is not really a great option, is it?
You are a master of missing the point! I salute you!
That is 100% the total destruction of Ukraine, because the only reason for wanting your adversary to give up weapons and give up alliances and pretty much give up sovereignty is to finish them at a later time. There is no other reason. Ukraine has reason to stop fighting without any safety guarantees.
That’s not destruction of Ukraine.
Destruction of Ukraine is what might happen if there’s no ceasefire.
So you think if someone attacks you, then says that they will only stop if you give them everything they want, plus stop resisting and not call anyone for help, that you are safe.
That’s insane. Nobody in their right mind would accept that.
No, I didn’t say any of this. Why are you putting words in my mouth?
You are free to correct my interpretation.
Ukraine can’t win against Russia. It can try to limit the damages now and keep existing as a country or continue the war and risk being entirely invaded. That’s a risky proposition.
Unfortunately it is becoming evident that European countries will not join the war and therefore Ukraine is on its own.
That Ukraine can’t win is not a serious statement. Any country can win any war. That is clear from the human history. It’s never only about size or strength. Only in recent history we can see that a poor country of Afghanistan, beat both the Soviet Union (and helped bring it’s collapse) and the US.
By conceding everything to Russia, they will be entirely invaded within a few years. The concessions are directly made for that. People in the Russian government have stated that goal, their opinion leaders have stated that goal, Putin has started that goal, maybe not in those words, but more or less. The concessions are made for that, to keep a country weak, for an invasion. There is no other reason to have concessions like that.
Ukraine has no other option than to continue fighting. If they get no serious security guarantees, guarantees better than the Bucharest memorandum, they can not stop fighting and resisting as that would mean they will surely lose everything.
If you think Ukraine can win the war, I don’t know what to tell you… I respect freedom of opinion.
Did you expect Afganistan to win over the US?
Yes Ukraine can win, without a doubt. It stopped Russian offensive, it continues to destroy Russian fossil fuel industry. The effort Russia extends right now to support their economy and military is not sustainable. If the west continues to support there is no doubt Ukraine will win. Without the support, is hard to say, but there is no doubt that continuing to fight will have a better result than to surrender right now.
The U.S. secured control of Afghanistan in about two months, as everybody expected. Ukraine can’t win the war, whatever winning means…
You have incredible but completely missed confidence in Russian military and Russia on general.
You have incredible but unfortunately completely unrealistic confidence in the Ukrainian military, and in Ukraine in general.
Ukraine has stopped the worlds second army and made them deplete All weapons they had.
They have not stopped the world’s second army as Russia is making advances everyday. Besides, the only reason Ukraine has been able to resist this much so far is the extraordinary support it has received from both the United States and European countries; this level of support can’t last.
Fact: Russia is not making advances every day.
Fact: Ukraine has not received extraordinary support. It has received old US weapons headed for the dumpsters and even these reluctantly. It has received less artillery ammo than Russia got from North Korea.
Fact: this level of support is easy to maintain and increase as US has sold far more weapons in this time to various countries, than has donated to Ukraine.
Fact: Russia is making advances every day.
Fact: Ukraine has received hundreds of billions of dollars of aid, intelligence sharing, internet satellite capabilities, training, coaching, diplomatic assistance, etc etc
Fact: No, it’s not easy to maintain and increase as it costs a lot of money and people are not willing to keep assisting Ukraine for free indefinitely. Are you suggesting this can keep going on just because the USA has sold more weapons to other countries? Do you understand the difference between making a sale and donating something?
Russia is not making advances right now. It has hardly taken any significant land in the last year. At significant cost both in lives and material.
Ukraine has received 30 year old weapons headed for expensive decommission. Americans counted those like they are new.
Us and America have barely increased their defense budgets. Russia is in full war economy and barely making any progress.
Russia can lose. It has lost in the past. Every country can lose and did. The notion that this autocratic corrupt country without any real economy, any real local product besides fossil fuels cannot lose is bizarre and totally insane. They cant even build their own modern army, because it relies too much on parts from the west.
You are very disingenuous with your comments. So I will end it here. I suspect you might be some kind of troll or tankie.
You’re the disingenuous one and you are completely out of touch with reality for suggesting Russia hasn’t made advances in a year. Just last week they took back Kursk…
You are pretending as if the US support for Ukraine is not big whereas no country came remotely close to providing as much support as the US did.
Of course, any country can lose, but given the current circumstances it is quite unlikely Russia is going to lose. Being convinced that Ukraine will win is bonkers.
Take it from the former US Ambassador to Russia
<img alt="Concessions" src="https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/36cddfcb-4d6b-4ad0-824a-be5c40e83dcd.jpeg">
Holy greedy, yes I understand he’s a dictator, but c’mon!
… does Ukraine even get anything out of that? It doesn’t sound like Ukraine benefits in any way.
It’s like “here’s the deal: you just give me $1 million”
The benefit to Ukraine is that simply being at the table shows they’re willing and Russia just keeps taking and taking, historically that ends one way.
The benefit is to survive.
In the short term but without assistance from other countries Putin will be back to finish the job.
If you are either and Putin comes back to finish the job, then European countries will need to decide if they want to go to war for Ukraine or not.
Ah the art of the deal. Impressive.
The answer to that is giving Ukraine more and more support, weapons and material until Putin changed his tune. Or you play the sniveling coward and start negotiating these earnestly. We all know what path Donnie boy will take.
The answer is for Europe to collectively get involved and annihilate every Russian within Ukraine’s borders. Set up permanent EU bases on the Russian border. Offer a massive ransom and immunity for anyone in Russia who neutralizes Putin and his oligarchy. The mafia state must be destroyed, and a message needs to be sent to the US that Europe will come down on them hard if they attempt to use force on any allies. Fascists are bullies, and only learn their lesson through violence.
Trump does not control the military yet. He can replace leadership but I’d be willing to bet a majority of lifers in leadership would turn against him if he tried to invade Canada or Greenland within the next few years. Better to trigger a civil war now than allow the fascists to consolidate power and fill the military with loyalists.
Yes but European countries have no appetite for war.
Ukraine can’t win without additional troops from other armies.
Saying “more aid” will affect that outcome is a propagandized lie just like when you people were saying Ukraine could retake Crimea.
Right now we’re in the “sunk-cost” stage of our investment. We can keep sending Ukraine equipment to keep up the lie that they can win without additional troops. That will result in more money for the MIC, and more dead Ukrainians that would’ve otherwise surrendered.
The outcome will remain the same, because Ukraine cannot win without additional troops.
If you have a problem with this reality, then maybe you people should start arguing in favor of sending troops to Ukraine instead of just equipment. (you’re not going to though, and this is part of why they don’t get new troops and will lose the war as a result.)
And other countries can’t send actual troops because Putin will cry about NATO and threaten with WW3 and nukes
But everyone is saying Russia won’t stop at Ukraine, so NATO is going to have to fight them either way.
People also said Ukraine shouldn’t mine their borders with Russia because it would be seen as escalation.
Maybe you people are… wrong? Just, maybe?
People don’t want to accept this so they just downvote you instead.
hes going to be laying more pressure on trump to force ukraine to give up.
Americans do not want to provide more support, weapons and material anymore. European countries can take over.
Real Americans do want to provide support. It’s the Russian asset and his smooth brain cult following who doesn’t.
Nope, most Americans do not want to send more money and arms to Ukraine.
Wow, it only took The Guardian 25 years to figure that out
Annex Russia Donald, you fucking pussy.
Russia already made this clear within the first month when negotiations happened.