Army parachutes onto remote island to help man with suspected hantavirus
(www.bbc.com)
from Valuy@lemmy.zip to world@lemmy.world on 10 May 12:39
https://lemmy.zip/post/64061606
from Valuy@lemmy.zip to world@lemmy.world on 10 May 12:39
https://lemmy.zip/post/64061606
#world
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Article does elaborate that it’s the Andes variant (the only one that does human to human) but I don’t think it mentioned the 40% mortality rate when it’s a respiratory infection, paywall kicked in before I skimmed it all.
But anyways, journalist really need to specify “Andes variant” in headlines. People are just googling “hantavirus” and no one is freaking out enough.
All it takes is one infected person going home and spreading it and we’re fucked. Especially since it’s coming from a cruise ship, so it’s already people that don’t take hygiene seriously, or they wouldn’t be going on cruise ships.
A modern typhoid Mary traveler would be a huge deal especially with long incubation periods and how long of a range infection can spread.
Like, there’s already someone that caught it walking within four feet of a table that had an infected person eating at it. If one of these fucks gets on an airplane while infectious, they’re gonna infect everyone on the plane, and 4-6 weeks later they’ll infect everyone they interact with
We’re insanely lucky we caught it on that ship, but we should have quarantined the whole fucking thing immediately.
This could make COVID look like nothing.
40% mortality, when dealing with isolated cases.
For isolated cases COVID mortality was well under 1%, deaths didn’t rack up until hospitals were overwhelmed…
If we start at 40% mortality with adequate hospital care, it’s gonna essentially be 100% mortality if hospitals are already full.
A bunch of them already got on a plane. We would already be seeing it if it was that bad.
let’s see how things look in 6 weeks.
Longer than that.
Evacuations are just starting today, and most (I think all) countries are just doing two week quarantine.
Symptoms show up at latest at 6 weeks, but can be as soon as four days. And right before symptoms you become infectious.
The real danger is these people get infected during evac, don’t display infections till after quarantine, and then upon release become infectious and spread it. Especially since they’ll think they’re safe and are likely to immediately go out in public.
Even with expontial spread, 6 weeks from now we’ll still be “fine” in the present tense, but that doesn’t mean we’re not already fucked.
That’s why controlling the begining is so important and everyone on that ship needs a two month quarantine to be sure.
www.cdc.gov/hantavirus/about/andesvirus.html
Almost a month and a half time hivit symptoms post infection…
The issue is they’re putting everyone on planes, then quarantining them. But only for two weeks…
It’s been worse than usual lately, but I’m really struggling how people can’t see this is clearly not being handled correctly. Like, clearly if one person is infectious, they infect everyone on the flight, and then they may not even show symptoms until a month later…
apnews.com/…/hantavirus-cruise-ship-hondius-tener…
The Spanish flight was today (yesterday?) saying:
Is just wild bro, and what’s fucked is that’s the prevailing attitude, as a species we just don’t understand anything but immediate consequences anymore
One of my friends is an epidemiologist. She does infectious disease stuff. She’s not too concerned about it, and I trust her expertise over media sensationalism.
What media sensitationalism?
There is none, that’s what my comment was about
Even just look at that link about how kitted out the WHO workers were during the evacuation.
The issue is individual countries not treating it seriously, obviously that would include some epidemiologists.
Like, not saying she’s not competent, but don’t forget what happened to the first surgeon that started washing his hands. It doesn’t matter if she has a degree and decades of experience if she doesn’t have a questioning attitude and just goes with the flow.
Because, again, the problem is that attitude being pervasive in the first place…
There are just so many different ways you’re missing the point here buddy…
Edit:
I mean, even if she’s “competent” in her day to day work…
If she isn’t concerned about andes variant as an epidemiologist, she isn’t paying attention and hasn’t been for years at least…
news.utexas.edu/…/scientists-map-deadly-hantaviru…
And that article was written before the cruise ship outbreak, it literally can’t be “media sensationalism” about the cruise out real, that’s not how linear time works.
Was curious about those numbers and ended up reading this article, which was quite interesting : https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid
In short, i think the difference in death rate between covid and hantaviruses’ respiratory infections is probably smaller than 40 to 1 (though still presumably high). This is because (i suppose) both number are a ratio of confirmed death to confirmed cases. As the article points out, the number of confirmed cases can fluctuate depending on how much you test people : for covid, this kind of mortality rate (CFR) was higher at first because few people were tested. Once a lot of tests were made, it diminished. I guess (and from now on it is 100% my uneducated take) that the respiratory infections due to the Andes variant are not well tested, and the high mortality rate is partly due to the fact that it’s more likely to test people dying or nearing death because of it, than people who had less or no problems but got silently infected.
Still, had no idea death rates were that high, thanks for sharing this ! I’ll be more careful about this issue now.
I mean, it killed Gene Hackman’s wife…
It’s called “andes variant” but it’s been in America for a while.
Weirdly enough, it’s such a big concern that we mapped it like a month before this cruise outbreak:
news.utexas.edu/…/scientists-map-deadly-hantaviru…
Because we knew we were gonna be fucked if a more transmissible variant showed up…
And it may just have…
Yeah, it’s still something very dangerous, and i’m grateful for the info you shared, otherwuse i’d have no idea. I just wanted to share the “fun” maths behind those statistics.