nosuchanon@lemmy.world
on 09 Apr 15:37
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One can only hope.
nightwatch_admin@lemmy.world
on 09 Apr 15:43
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smug lol
atzanteol@sh.itjust.works
on 09 Apr 15:47
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Since then, betting markets show Orbán’s stock has fallen marginally, though there is no suggestion that his declining fortunes have been caused by Vance’s intervention.
Betting markets. Grain of salt taken.
CanadaPlus@futurology.today
on 09 Apr 15:49
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Since then, betting markets show Orbán’s stock has fallen marginally, though there is no suggestion that his declining fortunes have been caused by Vance’s intervention.
So betting markets not polls, which would be pricing in the diminishing uncertainty as the day draws near, and it wasn’t like a sudden drop either.
There might not be a story here. Orban was losing, and he’s still losing.
Hopefully he doesn't lose like Nicolas Maduro lost the last election.
gravitas_deficiency@sh.itjust.works
on 09 Apr 15:52
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I do rather hate that so many news orgs seem to be using polymarket et al as a drop-in replacement for actual polling, because polymarket is loosely affiliated, if at all, with reality. It’s a fucking betting platform. There’s nothing scientific or statistical about it that aligns with demographic realities.
Aatube@lemmy.dbzer0.com
on 09 Apr 16:11
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Not to mention that a quality poll would just be among qualified likely voters in the election in question, where as polymarket is just gambling addicts anywhere on the planet.
On the other hand, it's well designed to surface inside information. Exactly the thing that lots of people complain about, but it's a good thing if you'd like to use the prediction market to make predictions like this.
Wildmimic@anarchist.nexus
on 09 Apr 16:53
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But at the same time Polymarket seems a bit like a self fulfilling prophecy - because Polymarket says something, it by itself increases the odds of that event happening; and in the cases where it isn’t this way, look for the large amount of bets 2 hours before the event in questing, a.k.a the “GOP spike”.
Zombiepirate@lemmy.world
on 09 Apr 15:56
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I know he kills Orban’s chances just like he killed the pope.
Aatube@lemmy.dbzer0.com
on 09 Apr 16:09
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Alternative theory: Western news’s emphasis on this made more people aware that Orbán was actually being challenged. I’m not sure if that holds true for voting Hungarians.
Teknikal@anarchist.nexus
on 09 Apr 16:09
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I’d personally be happier if the EU had some kind of election inspectors on the ground for somewhat sketchy times like this.
Trouble is we’re in a system where the likes of Orban can and do veto these kind of things, the entire process is flawed.
rogsson@piefed.social
on 09 Apr 16:12
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JD baby face screaming about how EU tries to affect the voting, proceeds to manipulate the public with his speech. Ooookeydokay
threaded - newest
Lol
One can only hope.
smug lol
Betting markets. Grain of salt taken.
So betting markets not polls, which would be pricing in the diminishing uncertainty as the day draws near, and it wasn’t like a sudden drop either.
There might not be a story here. Orban was losing, and he’s still losing.
So someone will bet big on him on Friday and they’ll do everything possible that he wins.
If you’re in Fidesz you already have a major financial stake in him winning. And maybe a stay-out-of-jail stake.
Remember Trumps son is a part of pollymarkets board
Hopefully he doesn't lose like Nicolas Maduro lost the last election.
I do rather hate that so many news orgs seem to be using polymarket et al as a drop-in replacement for actual polling, because polymarket is loosely affiliated, if at all, with reality. It’s a fucking betting platform. There’s nothing scientific or statistical about it that aligns with demographic realities.
Newsweek has always been a questionable source since its purchase by the notorious IBT. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/…/Perennial_sources#Newswee…
Not to mention that a quality poll would just be among qualified likely voters in the election in question, where as polymarket is just gambling addicts anywhere on the planet.
On the other hand, it's well designed to surface inside information. Exactly the thing that lots of people complain about, but it's a good thing if you'd like to use the prediction market to make predictions like this.
But at the same time Polymarket seems a bit like a self fulfilling prophecy - because Polymarket says something, it by itself increases the odds of that event happening; and in the cases where it isn’t this way, look for the large amount of bets 2 hours before the event in questing, a.k.a the “GOP spike”.
I know he kills Orban’s chances just like he killed the pope.
Alternative theory: Western news’s emphasis on this made more people aware that Orbán was actually being challenged. I’m not sure if that holds true for voting Hungarians.
I’d personally be happier if the EU had some kind of election inspectors on the ground for somewhat sketchy times like this.
Trouble is we’re in a system where the likes of Orban can and do veto these kind of things, the entire process is flawed.
JD baby face screaming about how EU tries to affect the voting, proceeds to manipulate the public with his speech. Ooookeydokay
Keep feeding these idiots egos that they’re liked and are helpful so they continue sabotaging their elections.
If it wasn’t clear that Orban is just a puppet before, then you must have noticed after this.
the Trump bump killed Pierre Poilievre’s 30% lead in Canada, and even after the loss, his MPs are all looking to defect to the Liberals.
These guys are clueless, this is not what Canada wants to see in political leadership…
<img alt="" src="https://lemmy.ca/pictrs/image/f6e8bc44-837e-4570-ad0e-48ef8a2e355b.png">
The fact that the Russian asset still has changes is concerning
<img alt="" src="https://lemmygrad.ml/pictrs/image/444b761c-5b79-486b-a949-2431aae12720.png">
JD Vance is the human equivalent of a sad trombone
This is the guy in position to take over MAGA if a major cardiovascular event were to happen in the near future. This gives me hope.
*based on odds on fucking polymarket. This is not news
I did think he would bad luck for their campaign - I just assumed he was just really popular in Hungary or something. Guess my instinct was right.
A strong man standing next to a fat faced pussy bitch makes him seem…less strong.
Why are we taking g the opinions of degenerate addicts and pretending it is relevant or scientific in any way?
Hmmm, couch fucker should do a world tour. Damage them all.