Why doesn't Mongolia simply arrest Putin?
from Don_Dickle@lemmy.world to nostupidquestions@lemmy.world on 02 Sep 16:33
https://lemmy.world/post/19335467

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Carrolade@lemmy.world on 02 Sep 16:37 next collapse

There are a lot of economic ties between Mongolia and Russia. You don’t get a lot of options when you’re landlocked and sandwiched between two large powers. So, Putin has a fair amount of leverage there, more than in most places.

kenkenken@fedia.io on 02 Sep 16:58 next collapse

Probably they want to become a part of the Russian world one day.

paddirn@lemmy.world on 02 Sep 17:05 next collapse

Their army size and military spending is a fraction of Russia’s, plus economic ties and nukes existing. Although now would be probably one of the best times to go against Russia militarily, since they’re stretched pretty thin at the moment, I doubt Mongolia would be the one to do it.

SnotFlickerman@lemmy.blahaj.zone on 02 Sep 18:08 next collapse

“Why doesn’t Mexico simply arrest Trump?”

Don_Dickle@lemmy.world on 02 Sep 18:56 collapse

Not going to lie that put a big smile on my face just thinking about it.

SnotFlickerman@lemmy.blahaj.zone on 02 Sep 19:17 collapse

As much as it would be a horrible clusterfuck… God it’s the dream, isn’t it?

DrownedRats@lemmy.world on 02 Sep 18:43 next collapse

Because the potential cost to them doesn’t out weigh the benefits (or potential costs) they get from adhering to the ICC regulations.

Badeendje@lemmy.world on 02 Sep 23:46 collapse

Yes, in terms of military strength they would just be a rounding error. Even the Russian army could take on mongolia. Less than 200k military (35k active, the rest reserve) and a budget around 200 million.

Mongolia is huuuuuuge with only 3.5 million people.

whome@discuss.tchncs.de on 02 Sep 19:55 next collapse

Some potatoes are simply too hot.

november@lemmy.vg on 03 Sep 05:08 next collapse

How do you envision that going, exactly?

SmilingSolaris@lemmy.world on 03 Sep 06:57 next collapse

No stupid questions. That means don’t be snarky.

november@lemmy.vg on 03 Sep 16:38 collapse

I’m serious. I want to know exactly what OP is imagining would happen.

SmilingSolaris@lemmy.world on 03 Sep 17:07 collapse

Nothing. That’s why they are asking. Because they don’t know what would happen. A lot of people go out of their way to avoid making assumptions about things they don’t know.

fubbernuckin@lemmy.world on 04 Sep 13:15 collapse

Does that answer the question?

addictedtochaos@lemm.ee on 03 Sep 15:02 next collapse

because they do need him / fear him more than we do.

Treczoks@lemmy.world on 03 Sep 19:33 next collapse

I hope that all the signee states of the ICC treaty will call in their Mongolian Ambassador and make it clear in no uncertain terms that this might lead to other agreements and contracts with Mongolia might be at stake.

philpo@feddit.org on 03 Sep 20:24 next collapse

And then what?

Mongolia is fully landlocked and is a minor military power.

  • They cannot get him out of the country to the ICC as neither Russia nor China would give them flight permissions. Russia for obvious reasons and China would surely not do it as well - as it would make travelling for Xi much more problematic, especially after what he plans with Taiwan.

  • They cannot keep him there because the Russians, as military incapable as they are, would basically drive into UB and simply retrieve him. The Mongolian armed forces have a joint budget that is less than what a single CH-53K King Stallion costs. Their army is based on (hardly working) T54 and BMP1. Their airforce owns exactly two Mig29 Fighters (gift of Russia). And that does not even include the very real possibility that the Chinese do Vladimir a favour and get him - simply to make sure to keep the West occupied and shift the focus away from them and Taiwan again.

  • If they keep him there and he dies…well…that would at least mean the end of the political ruling class of the country and could lead to the very real threat of large scale revenge by either Russia or Russia and China.

My personal prophecy for any scenario like that would be that a few thousand Mongolians die, around 300.000 end up in labour camps and Mongolia as a sovereign nation ceases to exist. Why? Mongolia exists mainly because two major powers “couldn’t be bothered” to conquer them, it would make them look bad and a buffer to a not that welcome neighbour is always welcome. If Mongolia fucks it up for one or both of them it basically looses that “reason” to exist in the eyes of both the Russians and the Chinese. And they would be “bad enough” in the light of a lot of countries as well as their own population that a “swift special military operation” is justified.

Don_Dickle@lemmy.world on 03 Sep 23:58 collapse

You sound like either you have studied this or are in the armed forces…no offense or anything.

philpo@feddit.org on 04 Sep 19:25 collapse

Neither of it - but part of my work is indeed similar to an analyst, for a different topic, though. Thanks, anyway.

superkret@feddit.org on 04 Sep 19:27 collapse

Arresting another country’s head of state is about as clear a declaration of war as you can give.
So your question boils down to: “Why doesn’t Mongolia go to war against Russia?”